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ADP Momentum

September 26, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


You might be of the belief that the average draft position (ADP) of a player in your fantasy hockey league is a good measure of when that player might be taken in drafts this Summer. Under normal circumstances, you would be right. For example, Connor McDavid currently has an ADP value of 1.1, indicating that he is being selected first overall (on average) in drafts this Summer. This number hasn't changed since the Yahoo fantasy hockey system opened in mid-August. It is safe to say that you can expect McDavid to go first overall in your typical fantasy hockey drafts.

But when, if ever, might the ADP of a player be misleading?

ADP Momentum

So far this Summer, there has been no outstanding news about Auston Matthews. He has not suffered any injuries; he has not been traded; and he is expected to play with linemates similar to the ones from last year. We know what there is to know about Auston Matthews. As a result of this, Matthews' ADP value has remained mostly fixed all Summer long (at just over 3). Figure 1 reveals how Matthews' ADP has changed since the Yahoo fantasy hockey system opened (note: we've chosen a scale for the chart to match that of the second player discussed later in this article).

Auston Matthews Average Draft Position

We'll define a player's rate of change in his ADP over time as his ADP Momentum. In this specific case, Matthews' ADP Momentum is essentially zero. Because of this, it is safe for you to assume that Matthews' ADP value of 3.1 is a reasonable expectation of where he'll be drafted in leagues this Summer. If you're counting on drafting Matthews, waiting until the fourth pick would be a mistake.

You can use this idea of ADP Momentum to avoid pitfalls during your draft. Some managers have noticed that Evander Kane's ranking by the major fantasy systems is low after posting 39 points in 43 games for the Edmonton Oilers in 2021-2022. If you were to look at Kane's ADP this morning, you'd find that he's being drafted with an ADP of 62.9. This suggests, in a 12-team league, that Kane would be waiting for you early in Round 6. But, if you're not employing the concept of ADP Momentum, you'll end up disappointed and frustrated on draft day. Why? Because there is little chance that Kane will fall into your lap late in Round 6. "But wait, his ADP says I can get him in Round 6," you protest!

Kane's ADP Momentum, seen in Figure 2, says otherwise. While it is true that Kane's ADP (as of this morning) sits at 62.9, it's also true that Kane's ADP includes those weeks he spent with an ADP at 65 or higher. Ask yourself the following question: if all of Kane's ADP values were larger (for weeks) than 62.9 prior to this morning, how is it possible that his ADP value right now is 62.9? The answer is that managers are currently drafting Kane with much earlier picks. How much earlier? We'd need some propietary data (e.g., how many managers drafted Kane at different ADP values - and on what dates!) from Yahoo to know for sure. But anecdotal data from recent mock drafts with 12 human managers suggests he is selected during, or before, Round 5.

Evander Kane Average Draft Position

While all managers will have access to static ADP data during their drafts, you can't find ADP Momentum data anywhere - except at Left Wing Lock.

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If you're looking for a chance to take advantage of these ADP momentum swings, then consider downloading one of our fantasy hockey draft kits this season. You won't be disappointed. We'll use your scoring system to craft customized player projections and rankings so that you can dominate your fantasy hockey draft.

For 16 years, you've trusted Left Wing Lock as the most reliable source to bring you accurate starting goalie information, line combinations, and player news alerts. That same passion and dedication fuels us as we create the most effective fantasy hockey draft kits on the market. We invite you to let us build your customized fantasy hockey draft kit for the 2022-2023 season. Order your kit today!

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