Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 11, 2023 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Linus Ullmark	0.9169	763	638	0.9384	0.9451

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Cam Talbot	0.9143	671	120	0.9061	0.9167	0.8962
James Reimer	0.9119	676	80	0.8950	0.9125	0.8905
Pyotr Kochetkov	0.9125	465	80	0.9140	0.9125	0.9064
Casey DeSmith	0.9136	489	74	0.9039	0.9054	0.8952
Craig Anderson	0.9123	495	105	0.9212	0.9048	0.9157
Vitek Vanecek	0.9090	655	114	0.9130	0.9035	0.9103
David Rittich	0.9049	283	31	0.9046	0.9032	0.8949
Ilya Sorokin	0.9240	899	143	0.9255	0.9021	0.9217
Jake Oettinger	0.9163	886	140	0.9233	0.9000	0.9189
Anthony Stolarz	0.9107	357	53	0.8880	0.8302	0.8953
John Gibson	0.9133	960	143	0.8979	0.8252	0.9069
Jordan Binnington	0.9080	936	128	0.8921	0.8203	0.9002
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9033	432	80	0.8935	0.8125	0.9043
Martin Jones	0.9066	719	119	0.8943	0.8067	0.9058
Akira Schmid	0.8885	209	31	0.9187	0.8065	0.9239
Jack Campbell	0.9116	513	98	0.8772	0.8061	0.8911
Alex Nedeljkovic	0.9061	292	36	0.8801	0.8056	0.8943
Spencer Martin	0.8939	676	96	0.8802	0.8021	0.8939
Petr Mrazek	0.9075	458	70	0.8777	0.8000	0.8877
Arvid Soderblom	0.8887	453	50	0.8940	0.8000	0.9046
Eric Comrie	0.8981	358	44	0.8827	0.7727	0.8937
Philipp Grubauer	0.9127	355	69	0.8845	0.7681	0.9085
Erik Kallgren	0.8922	246	25	0.8984	0.7600	0.9102
Thatcher Demko	0.9095	479	53	0.8831	0.7170	0.9025
Cal Petersen	0.9046	257	36	0.8677	0.6944	0.8910
Frederik Andersen	0.9157	201	21	0.8905	0.6667	0.9118

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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