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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 29, 2023   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Joel Hofer 0.9063 142 117 0.9155 0.9487
Linus Ullmark 0.9188 1342 1115 0.9374 0.9444

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Ivan Prosvetov 0.8962 105 32 0.9524 0.9688 0.9308
Kevin Mandolese 0.9160 119 31 0.9160 0.9355 0.9099
Pyotr Kochetkov 0.9084 627 98 0.9091 0.9184 0.8999
Mads Sogaard 0.8935 425 71 0.8941 0.9155 0.8914
Filip Gustavsson 0.9197 990 143 0.9323 0.9091 0.9241
James Reimer 0.9113 1193 158 0.8952 0.9051 0.8914
Cam Talbot 0.9141 874 157 0.9050 0.9045 0.8986
Alex Nedeljkovic 0.9059 361 53 0.8837 0.8302 0.8944
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 0.8964 1012 153 0.8893 0.8301 0.8964
Jack Campbell 0.9092 963 167 0.8816 0.8263 0.8913
Eric Comrie 0.8967 594 79 0.8855 0.8228 0.8921
Daniil Tarasov 0.8998 528 50 0.8920 0.8200 0.8970
Spencer Knight 0.9057 627 111 0.9011 0.8198 0.9108
Collin Delia 0.8976 444 75 0.8829 0.8133 0.8937
Jonathan Quick 0.9110 1028 149 0.8804 0.8121 0.8929
Martin Jones 0.9054 1072 165 0.8853 0.8121 0.8976
Thatcher Demko 0.9096 829 109 0.8951 0.8073 0.9065
Arvid Soderblom 0.8887 453 50 0.8940 0.8000 0.9046
Spencer Martin 0.8855 830 115 0.8711 0.7739 0.8877
Joel Hofer 0.9063 142 22 0.9155 0.7727 0.9355
Brian Elliott 0.9096 576 71 0.8906 0.7606 0.9042
Erik Kallgren 0.8922 246 25 0.8984 0.7600 0.9102
Cal Petersen 0.9046 257 36 0.8677 0.6944 0.8910

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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