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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 29, 2025   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Marcus Hogberg 0.9002 151 130 0.9470 0.9538
Jakub Dobes 0.9330 179 157 0.9330 0.9427
Anthony Stolarz 0.9163 480 379 0.9271 0.9393

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9054 1034 151 0.9130 0.9404 0.9042
Frederik Andersen 0.9159 170 37 0.9235 0.9189 0.9131
Igor Shesterkin 0.9192 1068 169 0.9092 0.9112 0.9038
Leevi Meriläinen 0.9146 279 43 0.9211 0.9070 0.9137
Darcy Kuemper 0.9142 680 95 0.9176 0.9053 0.9135
Arvid Soderblom 0.8910 675 91 0.9096 0.9011 0.9058
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 0.9021 1005 142 0.8975 0.8310 0.9031
Filip Gustavsson 0.9121 960 141 0.9125 0.8298 0.9179
Spencer Martin 0.8828 175 29 0.8457 0.8276 0.8616
Aleksei Kolosov 0.8703 347 51 0.8703 0.8235 0.8767
Jonathan Quick 0.9108 437 56 0.8970 0.8214 0.9035
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9010 425 56 0.8988 0.8214 0.9073
John Gibson 0.9101 605 84 0.9124 0.8214 0.9201
Jake Allen 0.9072 442 56 0.9005 0.8214 0.9076
Anton Forsberg 0.9039 443 67 0.8939 0.8209 0.9021
Jonas Johansson 0.8888 368 44 0.8913 0.8182 0.8974
Yaroslav Askarov 0.9063 346 44 0.9046 0.8182 0.9079
Eric Comrie 0.8952 346 38 0.9046 0.8158 0.9079
Jordan Binnington 0.9065 959 122 0.8968 0.8115 0.9032
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9028 899 132 0.8943 0.8106 0.9051
Jeremy Swayman 0.9133 1051 153 0.8953 0.8105 0.9042
Joel Hofer 0.9089 478 57 0.9059 0.8070 0.9156
Ilya Sorokin 0.9169 959 104 0.9051 0.7981 0.9117
Thatcher Demko 0.9100 301 39 0.8671 0.7949 0.8775
David Rittich 0.9047 447 58 0.8837 0.7931 0.8964
Justus Annunen 0.9047 463 74 0.8942 0.7838 0.9085
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9119 459 46 0.9041 0.7826 0.9112
Ilya Samsonov 0.9030 518 56 0.8977 0.7679 0.9080
Calvin Pickard 0.9038 433 42 0.9007 0.7619 0.9075
Dan Vladar 0.8913 577 87 0.8856 0.7586 0.9036
Cam Talbot 0.9131 778 96 0.9062 0.7500 0.9225
Ivan Fedotov 0.8707 357 32 0.8796 0.7500 0.8886
Semyon Varlamov 0.9156 262 30 0.8893 0.7333 0.9016

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2024-2025 save percentage

EVSV%: 2024-2025 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2024-2025 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2024-2025 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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