Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 5, 2025 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Marcus Hogberg	0.9002	151	130	0.9470	0.9538
Anthony Stolarz	0.9163	480	379	0.9271	0.9393

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9061	1107	159	0.9169	0.9371	0.9083
Frederik Andersen	0.9157	196	40	0.9133	0.9250	0.9014
Leevi Meriläinen	0.9186	295	45	0.9254	0.9111	0.9171
Darcy Kuemper	0.9143	746	112	0.9196	0.9107	0.9145
Arvid Soderblom	0.8910	702	94	0.9088	0.9043	0.9056
Igor Shesterkin	0.9188	1092	172	0.9066	0.9012	0.9027
John Gibson	0.9102	661	88	0.9138	0.8295	0.9195
Spencer Martin	0.8828	175	29	0.8457	0.8276	0.8616
Aleksei Kolosov	0.8703	347	51	0.8703	0.8235	0.8767
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9048	830	113	0.8747	0.8230	0.8858
Eric Comrie	0.8967	375	39	0.9120	0.8205	0.9134
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9027	985	144	0.8944	0.8194	0.9034
Yaroslav Askarov	0.8993	357	44	0.8964	0.8182	0.8998
Jonas Johansson	0.8889	369	44	0.8916	0.8182	0.8976
Jeremy Swayman	0.9138	1111	165	0.8983	0.8182	0.9062
Jordan Binnington	0.9067	1022	131	0.8992	0.8168	0.9050
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9120	512	54	0.9102	0.8148	0.9138
Ilya Sorokin	0.9175	1047	112	0.9102	0.8125	0.9147
Jonathan Quick	0.9108	473	58	0.9006	0.8103	0.9076
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9008	452	62	0.8938	0.8065	0.9046
David Rittich	0.9049	479	60	0.8873	0.8000	0.8984
Thatcher Demko	0.9104	372	45	0.8817	0.8000	0.8892
Anton Forsberg	0.9039	505	73	0.8950	0.7945	0.9059
Scott Wedgewood	0.9053	354	48	0.8983	0.7917	0.9066
Justus Annunen	0.9033	490	76	0.8918	0.7895	0.9046
Joel Hofer	0.9078	514	61	0.9027	0.7869	0.9143
Ilya Samsonov	0.9029	556	56	0.8975	0.7679	0.9068
Dan Vladar	0.8918	608	90	0.8882	0.7667	0.9043
Cam Talbot	0.9131	839	106	0.9070	0.7642	0.9218
Calvin Pickard	0.9038	433	42	0.9007	0.7619	0.9075
Ivan Fedotov	0.8728	395	33	0.8810	0.7576	0.8880
Semyon Varlamov	0.9156	262	30	0.8893	0.7333	0.9016

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2024-2025 save percentage

EVSV%: 2024-2025 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2024-2025 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2024-2025 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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