Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 12, 2025 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Marcus Hogberg	0.9002	151	130	0.9470	0.9538
Anthony Stolarz	0.9167	507	397	0.9290	0.9395

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Frederik Andersen	0.9157	220	42	0.9136	0.9286	0.9013
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9060	1163	170	0.9157	0.9235	0.9089
Darcy Kuemper	0.9142	767	114	0.9179	0.9123	0.9126
Leevi Meriläinen	0.9186	295	45	0.9254	0.9111	0.9171
Arvid Soderblom	0.8907	780	101	0.9064	0.9010	0.9035
Igor Shesterkin	0.9186	1135	181	0.9057	0.9006	0.9020
John Gibson	0.9102	661	88	0.9138	0.8295	0.9195
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9027	1058	151	0.8951	0.8278	0.9026
Spencer Martin	0.8828	175	29	0.8457	0.8276	0.8616
Vitek Vanecek	0.9025	467	86	0.8779	0.8256	0.8887
Aleksei Kolosov	0.8703	347	51	0.8703	0.8235	0.8767
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9048	830	113	0.8747	0.8230	0.8858
Ilya Sorokin	0.9169	1106	123	0.9069	0.8211	0.9117
Eric Comrie	0.8967	375	39	0.9120	0.8205	0.9134
Jonas Johansson	0.8889	369	44	0.8916	0.8182	0.8976
Yaroslav Askarov	0.8993	357	44	0.8964	0.8182	0.8998
Jordan Binnington	0.9064	1044	131	0.8966	0.8168	0.9022
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9120	512	54	0.9102	0.8148	0.9138
Thatcher Demko	0.9107	412	48	0.8908	0.8125	0.8959
Jeremy Swayman	0.9137	1150	169	0.8983	0.8107	0.9071
Jonathan Quick	0.9108	498	58	0.8996	0.8103	0.9061
David Rittich	0.9049	535	63	0.8897	0.8095	0.8982
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9007	474	63	0.8924	0.8095	0.9041
Anton Forsberg	0.9037	535	78	0.8935	0.7949	0.9045
Scott Wedgewood	0.9053	354	48	0.8983	0.7917	0.9066
Justus Annunen	0.9021	519	80	0.8902	0.7875	0.9030
Ilya Samsonov	0.9028	580	59	0.8966	0.7797	0.9050
Joel Hofer	0.9079	548	62	0.9033	0.7742	0.9153
Ivan Fedotov	0.8691	413	35	0.8765	0.7714	0.8832
Dan Vladar	0.8918	608	90	0.8882	0.7667	0.9043
Calvin Pickard	0.9038	484	47	0.9008	0.7660	0.9083
Cam Talbot	0.9130	853	106	0.9050	0.7642	0.9196
Semyon Varlamov	0.9156	262	30	0.8893	0.7333	0.9016

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2024-2025 save percentage

EVSV%: 2024-2025 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2024-2025 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2024-2025 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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