Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies
Introduction
Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.
The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.
Even-strength Save Percentage
We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.
| Player | CSV% | SA | EVSA | SV% | EVSV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz | 0.9144 | 657 | 534 | 0.9254 | 0.9401 |
Penalty Kill Save Percentage
Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.
| Player | CSV% | SA | PKSA | SV% | PKSV% | ASV% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Tomkins | 0.8833 | 120 | 24 | 0.8833 | 0.9583 | 0.8660 |
| Justus Annunen | 0.9160 | 377 | 62 | 0.9310 | 0.9516 | 0.9162 |
| Frederik Andersen | 0.9157 | 379 | 56 | 0.9314 | 0.9464 | 0.9198 |
| Adin Hill | 0.9109 | 908 | 126 | 0.9141 | 0.9206 | 0.9096 |
| Cam Talbot | 0.9136 | 1426 | 238 | 0.9144 | 0.9202 | 0.9076 |
| Pheonix Copley | 0.8988 | 177 | 48 | 0.8701 | 0.9167 | 0.8709 |
| Jonathan Quick | 0.9111 | 745 | 104 | 0.9128 | 0.9038 | 0.9060 |
| John Gibson | 0.9102 | 1316 | 259 | 0.8898 | 0.8301 | 0.8997 |
| Nico Daws | 0.8937 | 568 | 76 | 0.8944 | 0.8289 | 0.9007 |
| Kaapo Kahkonen | 0.8983 | 1118 | 145 | 0.8971 | 0.8276 | 0.9024 |
| Ilya Sorokin | 0.9187 | 1734 | 241 | 0.9072 | 0.8216 | 0.9122 |
| Marc-Andre Fleury | 0.9122 | 1000 | 178 | 0.8990 | 0.8202 | 0.9122 |
| Joonas Korpisalo | 0.9014 | 1463 | 207 | 0.8906 | 0.8164 | 0.8975 |
| Spencer Martin | 0.8886 | 508 | 74 | 0.8957 | 0.8108 | 0.9061 |
| Anton Forsberg | 0.9043 | 704 | 95 | 0.8849 | 0.8105 | 0.8920 |
| Calvin Pickard | 0.9046 | 516 | 67 | 0.9128 | 0.8060 | 0.9184 |
| Casey DeSmith | 0.9088 | 726 | 115 | 0.8912 | 0.7913 | 0.9058 |
| Jiri Patera | 0.9023 | 196 | 38 | 0.8929 | 0.7895 | 0.9091 |
| Kevin Lankinen | 0.9045 | 582 | 79 | 0.9055 | 0.7595 | 0.9171 |
| Antti Raanta | 0.9148 | 493 | 51 | 0.8722 | 0.7451 | 0.8871 |
Legend
CSV%: Career Save Percentage
SA: Shots against
EVSA: Even-strength shots against
PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage
EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill
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