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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 27, 2020   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Anton Khudobin0.91907946450.93070.9426
Igor Shesterkin0.94023683050.94020.9410
Chris Driedger0.92692652300.93210.9391

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Igor Shesterkin0.9402368530.94020.94340.9293
Calvin Petersen0.9203172260.91280.92310.9034
Robin Lehner0.917911521760.91840.92050.9125
Martin Jones0.909510081880.89380.91490.8875
Antti Raanta0.92069871260.92100.91270.9141
Mike Smith0.91169711460.90320.91100.9001
Devan Dubnyk0.91478231320.89190.84090.8979
John Gibson0.918314381630.90330.84050.9057
Craig Anderson0.91298721310.90140.83970.9070
Linus Ullmark0.911110311520.91370.83550.9171
Carter Hutton0.91088321150.89780.83480.9065
Brian Elliott0.9116769960.89860.83330.9023
Jack Campbell0.9166696780.90370.83330.9056
Charlie Lindgren0.9070117230.88030.82610.8948
Corey Crawford0.917410661190.91280.82350.9170
Jonathan Quick0.913111331570.89850.82170.9025
Jimmy Howard0.91258001220.88630.81970.8952
Michael Hutchinson0.9050421540.88600.81480.8937
Laurent Brossoit0.9061512640.89450.81250.9003
Adin Hill0.9068343450.91840.80000.9230
Cory Schneider0.9177258340.86430.79410.8730
Keith Kinkaid0.9051192290.87500.79310.8900
Pekka Rinne0.91759731400.90030.78570.9144


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2019-2020 save percentage

EVSV%: 2019-2020 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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