Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Anton Khudobin 0.9190 794 645 0.9307 0.9426
Igor Shesterkin 0.9402 368 305 0.9402 0.9410
Chris Driedger 0.9269 265 230 0.9321 0.9391

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Igor Shesterkin 0.9402 368 53 0.9402 0.9434 0.9293
Calvin Petersen 0.9203 172 26 0.9128 0.9231 0.9034
Robin Lehner 0.9179 1152 176 0.9184 0.9205 0.9125
Martin Jones 0.9095 1008 188 0.8938 0.9149 0.8875
Antti Raanta 0.9206 987 126 0.9210 0.9127 0.9141
Mike Smith 0.9116 971 146 0.9032 0.9110 0.9001
Devan Dubnyk 0.9147 823 132 0.8919 0.8409 0.8979
John Gibson 0.9183 1438 163 0.9033 0.8405 0.9057
Craig Anderson 0.9129 872 131 0.9014 0.8397 0.9070
Linus Ullmark 0.9111 1031 152 0.9137 0.8355 0.9171
Carter Hutton 0.9108 832 115 0.8978 0.8348 0.9065
Brian Elliott 0.9116 769 96 0.8986 0.8333 0.9023
Jack Campbell 0.9166 696 78 0.9037 0.8333 0.9056
Charlie Lindgren 0.9070 117 23 0.8803 0.8261 0.8948
Corey Crawford 0.9174 1066 119 0.9128 0.8235 0.9170
Jonathan Quick 0.9131 1133 157 0.8985 0.8217 0.9025
Jimmy Howard 0.9125 800 122 0.8863 0.8197 0.8952
Michael Hutchinson 0.9050 421 54 0.8860 0.8148 0.8937
Laurent Brossoit 0.9061 512 64 0.8945 0.8125 0.9003
Adin Hill 0.9068 343 45 0.9184 0.8000 0.9230
Cory Schneider 0.9177 258 34 0.8643 0.7941 0.8730
Keith Kinkaid 0.9051 192 29 0.8750 0.7931 0.8900
Pekka Rinne 0.9175 973 140 0.9003 0.7857 0.9144
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill