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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 27, 2021   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Semyon Varlamov0.91581191040.96640.9712
John Gibson0.91891911560.94760.9423
Vitek Vanecek0.91761701350.91760.9407

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Philipp Grubauer0.9200160360.91880.97220.8959
John Gibson0.9189191300.94760.96670.9304
Anton Khudobin0.919572250.95830.96000.9425
Jonathan Quick0.9133128240.89840.95830.8787
Darcy Kuemper0.9178173330.91330.90910.9055
Kevin Lankinen0.909188240.90910.83330.9249
Frederik Andersen0.9162163290.89570.82760.9104
Connor Hellebuyck0.9168139230.90650.82610.9087
Thomas Greiss0.9146120220.91670.81820.9260
Scott Wedgewood0.904593220.91400.81820.9308
Juuse Saros0.9178116240.90520.75000.9401
Carter Hart0.9127158240.87970.70830.9010


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2020-2021 save percentage

EVSV%: 2020-2021 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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