Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Semyon Varlamov 0.9158 119 104 0.9664 0.9712
John Gibson 0.9189 191 156 0.9476 0.9423
Vitek Vanecek 0.9176 170 135 0.9176 0.9407

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Philipp Grubauer 0.9200 160 36 0.9188 0.9722 0.8959
John Gibson 0.9189 191 30 0.9476 0.9667 0.9304
Anton Khudobin 0.9195 72 25 0.9583 0.9600 0.9425
Jonathan Quick 0.9133 128 24 0.8984 0.9583 0.8787
Darcy Kuemper 0.9178 173 33 0.9133 0.9091 0.9055
Kevin Lankinen 0.9091 88 24 0.9091 0.8333 0.9249
Frederik Andersen 0.9162 163 29 0.8957 0.8276 0.9104
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9168 139 23 0.9065 0.8261 0.9087
Thomas Greiss 0.9146 120 22 0.9167 0.8182 0.9260
Scott Wedgewood 0.9045 93 22 0.9140 0.8182 0.9308
Juuse Saros 0.9178 116 24 0.9052 0.7500 0.9401
Carter Hart 0.9127 158 24 0.8797 0.7083 0.9010
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill