Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 2, 2022 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Charlie Lindgren	0.9134	118	103	0.9576	0.9515
Jaroslav Halak	0.9161	245	212	0.9184	0.9434
Pavel Francouz	0.9241	233	202	0.9270	0.9406

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Spencer Martin	0.9159	118	21	0.9576	0.9524	0.9428
Ville Husso	0.9172	458	65	0.9410	0.9385	0.9277
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9131	277	30	0.9170	0.9333	0.9077
James Reimer	0.9132	781	89	0.9155	0.9326	0.9081
John Gibson	0.9172	1069	158	0.9224	0.9304	0.9123
Igor Shesterkin	0.9271	935	143	0.9369	0.9231	0.9269
Tristan Jarry	0.9152	1058	111	0.9234	0.9189	0.9162
Anton Forsberg	0.9039	515	91	0.9087	0.9121	0.9011
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9082	663	67	0.8944	0.9104	0.8928
Craig Anderson	0.9129	253	33	0.9170	0.9091	0.9124
Antti Raanta	0.9192	243	32	0.9136	0.9063	0.9132
Michael Houser	0.9174	77	21	0.9481	0.9048	0.9479
Jon Gillies	0.8988	265	21	0.8943	0.9048	0.8949
Sergei Bobrovsky	0.9166	985	152	0.9198	0.9013	0.9152
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9161	1117	164	0.9105	0.8293	0.9156
Thatcher Demko	0.9125	1057	170	0.9167	0.8235	0.9248
Jonathan Bernier	0.9124	264	44	0.9015	0.8182	0.9115
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9095	499	65	0.8978	0.8154	0.9052
Cayden Primeau	0.8848	243	27	0.8848	0.8148	0.8886
Jake Oettinger	0.9115	443	42	0.9120	0.8095	0.9146
Braden Holtby	0.9146	629	68	0.9126	0.8088	0.9157
Chris Driedger	0.9214	306	52	0.8954	0.8077	0.9077
Laurent Brossoit	0.9066	360	52	0.8972	0.8077	0.9090
Anton Khudobin	0.9161	231	46	0.8788	0.8043	0.8926
Cal Petersen	0.9123	481	70	0.9002	0.8000	0.9133
Thomas Greiss	0.9133	436	52	0.8945	0.7885	0.9054
David Rittich	0.9060	170	27	0.8824	0.7778	0.8955
Jaroslav Halak	0.9161	245	30	0.9184	0.7333	0.9312
Aaron Dell	0.9045	354	44	0.8927	0.7273	0.9092

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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