Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

April 27, 2022 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Spencer Martin	0.9187	150	116	0.9533	0.9569
Charlie Lindgren	0.9134	118	103	0.9576	0.9515

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Felix Sandstrom	0.9139	151	35	0.9139	0.9429	0.9052
Spencer Martin	0.9187	150	32	0.9533	0.9375	0.9420
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9131	277	30	0.9170	0.9333	0.9077
James Reimer	0.9130	1419	178	0.9126	0.9326	0.9051
Igor Shesterkin	0.9281	1622	253	0.9346	0.9289	0.9237
Anton Forsberg	0.9091	1423	240	0.9164	0.9208	0.9078
Anthony Stolarz	0.9160	799	132	0.9186	0.9167	0.9118
Michael Houser	0.9174	77	21	0.9481	0.9048	0.9479
Tristan Jarry	0.9149	1711	189	0.9193	0.9048	0.9136
Semyon Varlamov	0.9159	951	114	0.9096	0.9035	0.9046
Frederik Andersen	0.9161	1431	184	0.9224	0.9022	0.9152
Erik Kallgren	0.8858	359	59	0.8858	0.8305	0.8921
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9016	634	93	0.8770	0.8280	0.8842
Braden Holtby	0.9146	700	81	0.9129	0.8272	0.9144
Collin Delia	0.9035	182	22	0.8956	0.8182	0.9043
Jonathan Bernier	0.9124	264	44	0.9015	0.8182	0.9115
Eric Comrie	0.9007	485	71	0.9155	0.8169	0.9249
Laurent Brossoit	0.9053	588	85	0.8946	0.8118	0.9043
David Rittich	0.9048	385	53	0.8831	0.8113	0.8924
Anton Khudobin	0.9161	231	46	0.8788	0.8043	0.8926
Jaroslav Halak	0.9157	400	54	0.9025	0.7963	0.9107
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9086	773	97	0.8978	0.7938	0.9065
Thomas Greiss	0.9122	842	103	0.8907	0.7864	0.9008
Chris Driedger	0.9165	671	103	0.8972	0.7864	0.9108
Cayden Primeau	0.8737	302	32	0.8675	0.7813	0.8751
Nico Daws	0.8930	617	66	0.8930	0.7727	0.9035
Aaron Dell	0.9045	354	44	0.8927	0.7273	0.9092

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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