Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Spencer Martin 0.9187 150 116 0.9533 0.9569
Charlie Lindgren 0.9134 118 103 0.9576 0.9515

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Felix Sandstrom 0.9139 151 35 0.9139 0.9429 0.9052
Spencer Martin 0.9187 150 32 0.9533 0.9375 0.9420
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 0.9131 277 30 0.9170 0.9333 0.9077
James Reimer 0.9130 1419 178 0.9126 0.9326 0.9051
Igor Shesterkin 0.9281 1622 253 0.9346 0.9289 0.9237
Anton Forsberg 0.9091 1423 240 0.9164 0.9208 0.9078
Anthony Stolarz 0.9160 799 132 0.9186 0.9167 0.9118
Michael Houser 0.9174 77 21 0.9481 0.9048 0.9479
Tristan Jarry 0.9149 1711 189 0.9193 0.9048 0.9136
Semyon Varlamov 0.9159 951 114 0.9096 0.9035 0.9046
Frederik Andersen 0.9161 1431 184 0.9224 0.9022 0.9152
Erik Kallgren 0.8858 359 59 0.8858 0.8305 0.8921
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9016 634 93 0.8770 0.8280 0.8842
Braden Holtby 0.9146 700 81 0.9129 0.8272 0.9144
Collin Delia 0.9035 182 22 0.8956 0.8182 0.9043
Jonathan Bernier 0.9124 264 44 0.9015 0.8182 0.9115
Eric Comrie 0.9007 485 71 0.9155 0.8169 0.9249
Laurent Brossoit 0.9053 588 85 0.8946 0.8118 0.9043
David Rittich 0.9048 385 53 0.8831 0.8113 0.8924
Anton Khudobin 0.9161 231 46 0.8788 0.8043 0.8926
Jaroslav Halak 0.9157 400 54 0.9025 0.7963 0.9107
Alexandar Georgiev 0.9086 773 97 0.8978 0.7938 0.9065
Thomas Greiss 0.9122 842 103 0.8907 0.7864 0.9008
Chris Driedger 0.9165 671 103 0.8972 0.7864 0.9108
Cayden Primeau 0.8737 302 32 0.8675 0.7813 0.8751
Nico Daws 0.8930 617 66 0.8930 0.7727 0.9035
Aaron Dell 0.9045 354 44 0.8927 0.7273 0.9092
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2021-2022 save percentage
EVSV%
2021-2022 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill