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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

April 27, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Spencer Martin0.91871501160.95330.9569
Charlie Lindgren0.91341181030.95760.9515

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Felix Sandstrom0.9139151350.91390.94290.9052
Spencer Martin0.9187150320.95330.93750.9420
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen0.9131277300.91700.93330.9077
James Reimer0.913014191780.91260.93260.9051
Igor Shesterkin0.928116222530.93460.92890.9237
Anton Forsberg0.909114232400.91640.92080.9078
Anthony Stolarz0.91607991320.91860.91670.9118
Michael Houser0.917477210.94810.90480.9479
Tristan Jarry0.914917111890.91930.90480.9136
Semyon Varlamov0.91599511140.90960.90350.9046
Frederik Andersen0.916114311840.92240.90220.9152
Erik Kallgren0.8858359590.88580.83050.8921
Joonas Korpisalo0.9016634930.87700.82800.8842
Braden Holtby0.9146700810.91290.82720.9144
Collin Delia0.9035182220.89560.81820.9043
Jonathan Bernier0.9124264440.90150.81820.9115
Eric Comrie0.9007485710.91550.81690.9249
Laurent Brossoit0.9053588850.89460.81180.9043
David Rittich0.9048385530.88310.81130.8924
Anton Khudobin0.9161231460.87880.80430.8926
Jaroslav Halak0.9157400540.90250.79630.9107
Alexandar Georgiev0.9086773970.89780.79380.9065
Thomas Greiss0.91228421030.89070.78640.9008
Chris Driedger0.91656711030.89720.78640.9108
Cayden Primeau0.8737302320.86750.78130.8751
Nico Daws0.8930617660.89300.77270.9035
Aaron Dell0.9045354440.89270.72730.9092


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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