Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 22, 2023 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Linus Ullmark	0.9185	1293	1085	0.9366	0.9438

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Ivan Prosvetov	0.8962	105	32	0.9524	0.9688	0.9308
Kevin Mandolese	0.9160	119	31	0.9160	0.9355	0.9099
Mads Sogaard	0.8870	362	63	0.8867	0.9206	0.8840
Laurent Brossoit	0.9065	110	22	0.9364	0.9091	0.9300
Filip Gustavsson	0.9192	967	141	0.9317	0.9078	0.9237
Pyotr Kochetkov	0.9087	563	86	0.9094	0.9070	0.9021
Cam Talbot	0.9141	874	157	0.9050	0.9045	0.8986
James Reimer	0.9114	1131	152	0.8957	0.9013	0.8918
Jonathan Quick	0.9112	989	146	0.8817	0.8288	0.8921
Jack Campbell	0.9094	930	163	0.8817	0.8282	0.8913
Sam Montembeault	0.8968	1115	186	0.9049	0.8280	0.9115
Daniil Tarasov	0.8998	528	50	0.8920	0.8200	0.8970
Spencer Knight	0.9057	627	111	0.9011	0.8198	0.9108
Martin Jones	0.9054	1065	163	0.8854	0.8098	0.8982
Alex Nedeljkovic	0.9061	292	36	0.8801	0.8056	0.8943
Collin Delia	0.8968	413	70	0.8789	0.8000	0.8899
Thatcher Demko	0.9100	753	100	0.8964	0.8000	0.9080
Arvid Soderblom	0.8887	453	50	0.8940	0.8000	0.9046
Eric Comrie	0.8938	527	67	0.8767	0.7910	0.8871
Spencer Martin	0.8855	830	115	0.8711	0.7739	0.8877
Brian Elliott	0.9098	542	65	0.8948	0.7692	0.9069
Erik Kallgren	0.8922	246	25	0.8984	0.7600	0.9102
Cal Petersen	0.9046	257	36	0.8677	0.6944	0.8910

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

Comments (0)

In order to leave a comment, you must be a registered user at our website and logged in.

Older posts Newer posts