Buy-Low and Sell-High: Skaters
Introduction
Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at skaters performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on shooting percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it is unlikely that a player can maintain a shooting percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers for long amounts of time (which translates to lots of shots).
The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent. The last column (Dev) measures the deviation from career levels. As a fantasy hockey manager (at least one in a league that emphasizes goal scoring), you could interpret this data as a player's trade value. Today's article will include the requirements that a player has taken at least 30 shots on goal and has a deviation of at least 50% from his career numbers.
| Player | G | A | S | S/GP | 3YS/GP | SH% | CSH% | DEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Chychrun | 8 | 7 | 42 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 19.1 | 7.2 | 163 |
| Rasmus Andersson | 6 | 9 | 47 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 12.8 | 4.9 | 161 |
| Aliaksei Protas | 8 | 13 | 40 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 20.0 | 7.8 | 157 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | 6 | 10 | 41 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 14.6 | 6.0 | 143 |
| Eric Robinson | 7 | 9 | 30 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 23.3 | 10.3 | 127 |
| Stefan Noesen | 13 | 9 | 52 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 25.0 | 11.3 | 121 |
| Matt Duchene | 12 | 16 | 43 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 27.9 | 13.5 | 107 |
| Brayden Point | 16 | 5 | 44 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 36.4 | 18.9 | 93 |
| Cole Caufield | 16 | 7 | 65 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 24.6 | 12.8 | 92 |
| Anze Kopitar | 8 | 21 | 32 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 25.0 | 13.1 | 91 |
| Tyler Seguin | 9 | 11 | 43 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 20.9 | 11.2 | 87 |
| Alex Ovechkin | 15 | 10 | 63 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 23.8 | 13.0 | 84 |
| Brett Howden | 10 | 1 | 43 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 23.3 | 12.8 | 81 |
| Morgan Rielly | 4 | 10 | 47 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 80 |
| Colton Parayko | 4 | 8 | 50 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 77 |
| Jordan Martinook | 6 | 7 | 40 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 15.0 | 8.5 | 77 |
| Alex Laferriere | 11 | 9 | 55 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 20.0 | 11.4 | 76 |
| Brendan Gallagher | 8 | 5 | 46 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 17.4 | 9.9 | 76 |
| Joel Kiviranta | 5 | 1 | 32 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 15.6 | 9.0 | 75 |
| Martin Necas | 13 | 26 | 61 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 21.3 | 12.2 | 74 |
| Jack Roslovic | 12 | 3 | 56 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 21.4 | 12.4 | 73 |
| Evan Rodrigues | 6 | 7 | 45 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 71 |
| Mason Marchment | 10 | 14 | 48 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 20.8 | 12.3 | 69 |
| Lars Eller | 6 | 6 | 36 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 16.7 | 10.0 | 67 |
| Dylan Larkin | 12 | 8 | 65 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 18.5 | 11.1 | 66 |
| Matt Coronato | 6 | 4 | 42 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 14.3 | 8.7 | 65 |
| Sam Reinhart | 18 | 16 | 68 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 26.5 | 16.0 | 65 |
| Gustav Nyquist | 6 | 4 | 31 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 19.4 | 11.9 | 63 |
| Ryan Donato | 10 | 5 | 60 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 16.7 | 10.2 | 63 |
| Nick Foligno | 7 | 3 | 38 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 18.4 | 11.3 | 63 |
| Pius Suter | 9 | 5 | 45 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 20.0 | 12.4 | 62 |
| Jake DeBrusk | 11 | 9 | 53 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 20.8 | 12.8 | 62 |
| Adam Lowry | 6 | 10 | 34 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 17.7 | 10.9 | 62 |
| Ross Colton | 8 | 1 | 37 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 21.6 | 13.3 | 62 |
| Damon Severson | 4 | 9 | 41 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 61 |
| Charlie Coyle | 7 | 1 | 38 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 18.4 | 11.5 | 60 |
| Matthew Knies | 10 | 5 | 40 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 25.0 | 15.7 | 59 |
| Brandon Duhaime | 4 | 4 | 31 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 58 |
| Sam Bennett | 13 | 11 | 77 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 16.9 | 10.7 | 58 |
| Alexander Wennberg | 6 | 8 | 36 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 16.7 | 10.7 | 56 |
| Eeli Tolvanen | 7 | 2 | 37 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 18.9 | 12.1 | 56 |
| Ivan Barbashev | 13 | 15 | 47 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 27.7 | 17.9 | 55 |
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 8 | 7 | 42 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 19.1 | 12.4 | 54 |
| Leo Carlsson | 6 | 5 | 30 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 12.9 | 54 |
| Luke Kunin | 6 | 4 | 37 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 16.2 | 10.7 | 52 |
| Hampus Lindholm | 3 | 4 | 35 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 52 |
| Anthony Cirelli | 10 | 13 | 48 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 20.8 | 13.9 | 50 |
| Will Cuylle | 9 | 11 | 45 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 20.0 | 13.3 | 50 |
| Phillip Danault | 2 | 11 | 41 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 10.1 | -51 |
| Sam Malinski | 1 | 3 | 34 | 1.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 6.2 | -52 |
| Viktor Arvidsson | 2 | 3 | 38 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 10.9 | -52 |
| Morgan Geekie | 2 | 4 | 39 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 5.1 | 10.8 | -52 |
| Joel Farabee | 3 | 5 | 53 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 5.7 | 12.1 | -53 |
| Jake Sanderson | 1 | 13 | 49 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 4.4 | -54 |
| Wyatt Johnston | 4 | 10 | 65 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 6.2 | 13.6 | -55 |
| Erik Karlsson | 2 | 14 | 66 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 6.7 | -55 |
| Jonathan Marchessault | 4 | 8 | 79 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 11.3 | -55 |
| Zach Hyman | 3 | 5 | 51 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 5.9 | 13.4 | -56 |
| K'Andre Miller | 1 | 3 | 34 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 7.4 | -60 |
| Nick Schmaltz | 3 | 17 | 55 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 5.5 | 13.7 | -60 |
| Parker Kelly | 1 | 3 | 32 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 8.0 | -61 |
| Shea Theodore | 1 | 17 | 49 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 5.5 | -63 |
| Justin Faulk | 1 | 6 | 48 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 5.7 | -64 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 1 | 8 | 42 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 6.7 | -65 |
| Aaron Ekblad | 1 | 13 | 42 | 1.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 6.7 | -65 |
| Brent Burns | 1 | 5 | 50 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 6.5 | -69 |
| Adam Henrique | 2 | 5 | 43 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 4.7 | 15.2 | -69 |
| Kevin Stenlund | 1 | 3 | 32 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3.1 | 10.3 | -70 |
| Thomas Chabot | 1 | 12 | 59 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 5.7 | -70 |
| Kirby Dach | 1 | 7 | 42 | 1.7 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 8.6 | -72 |
| Alexander Holtz | 1 | 7 | 36 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 10.5 | -73 |
| Noah Dobson | 1 | 10 | 74 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 5.5 | -75 |
| Andre Burakovsky | 1 | 8 | 33 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 13.5 | -77 |
| Michael Carcone | 1 | 2 | 32 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 14.4 | -78 |
| Jack Quinn | 1 | 4 | 43 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 10.8 | -78 |
| Andrei Kuzmenko | 1 | 8 | 30 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 21.1 | -84 |
| Jan Rutta | 0 | 2 | 30 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 4.4 | -100 |
| Ryan Pulock | 0 | 8 | 39 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 4.6 | -100 |
| Carson Soucy | 0 | 3 | 30 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 6.5 | -100 |
| Adam Fox | 0 | 20 | 36 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 7.4 | -100 |
| Jacob Trouba | 0 | 6 | 46 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 4.4 | -100 |
Legend
G: Goals
A: Assists
S: Shots on goal
S/GP: Shots on goal per game
3YS/GP: Three-year average shots on goal per game
SH%: 2024-2025 shooting percentage
CSH%: Career shooting percentage
DEV: Deviation from career shooting percentage
Comments (4)
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This analysis is so flawed. It doesn't take into account player movement/stability, their role, which can/does change on the same team, or when they're traded/sign elsewhere. This list doesn't include Stamkos, Bratt, Hischier, Boeser, Nylander, McDavid, Matthews, or Pastrnak, so really, what use is it? Plus, the comment "playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent" is just unwarranted.
Thanks for your comment @BCMac. You noted the following: "This list doesn't include Stamkos, Bratt, Hischier, Boeser, Nylander, McDavid, Matthews, or Pastrnak, so really, what use is it?" Well, since this is a list of players with shooting percentages that deviate by 50% or more from their career averages, why would we include players with deviations less than 50%?
@BCMac Do you also complain about the absence of Danny DeVito from lists of Hollywood actors who are at least six feet tall?
@Mike, thanks for nitpicking the players I mention, which clearly don't "fit" your analysis, rather than focusing on the main parts of my comment, which is about the flaws in your "analysis". I'm guessing your parents treated you poorly, given your rather defensive, "veiled" in humour, trauma response. It's ok, lad, the dolly can't hurt you.