Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

December 25, 2024 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Cam Talbot	0.9134	520	445	0.9115	0.9438
Anthony Stolarz	0.9163	480	379	0.9271	0.9393

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Arvid Soderblom	0.8884	392	53	0.9107	0.9623	0.9000
Igor Shesterkin	0.9200	789	133	0.9125	0.9248	0.9031
Darcy Kuemper	0.9138	416	64	0.9087	0.9219	0.9032
Juuse Saros	0.9164	799	115	0.9074	0.9217	0.8995
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9050	699	97	0.9127	0.9175	0.9076
Tristan Jarry	0.9100	462	70	0.8853	0.9143	0.8788
Pyotr Kochetkov	0.9082	515	69	0.9029	0.9130	0.8961
Samuel Ersson	0.8881	391	67	0.8721	0.9104	0.8677
Joey Daccord	0.9081	649	99	0.9122	0.9091	0.9062
Jonathan Quick	0.9110	288	35	0.9063	0.8286	0.9115
Spencer Martin	0.8828	175	29	0.8457	0.8276	0.8616
John Gibson	0.9099	352	58	0.9063	0.8276	0.9178
Jake Allen	0.9072	289	40	0.8962	0.8250	0.9069
Stuart Skinner	0.9072	611	67	0.8953	0.8209	0.9008
Anton Forsberg	0.9040	271	44	0.8893	0.8182	0.9002
Joel Hofer	0.9099	317	38	0.9085	0.8158	0.9146
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9059	505	70	0.8733	0.8143	0.8840
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9022	659	91	0.8953	0.8132	0.9035
Eric Comrie	0.8943	244	25	0.9016	0.8000	0.9056
Jeremy Swayman	0.9137	665	105	0.8872	0.8000	0.8992
Ilya Samsonov	0.9032	353	34	0.8980	0.7941	0.9055
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9026	619	92	0.8885	0.7935	0.9019
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9119	283	28	0.8975	0.7857	0.9059
David Rittich	0.9054	376	48	0.8910	0.7708	0.9043
Justus Annunen	0.9061	307	39	0.8925	0.7692	0.9058
Ilya Sorokin	0.9166	707	75	0.8982	0.7600	0.9079
Dan Vladar	0.8916	464	65	0.8858	0.7385	0.9050
Semyon Varlamov	0.9156	262	30	0.8893	0.7333	0.9016
Ivan Fedotov	0.8658	260	26	0.8769	0.7308	0.8897
Cam Talbot	0.9134	520	62	0.9115	0.7097	0.9316
Calvin Pickard	0.9040	274	27	0.9015	0.7037	0.9130

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2024-2025 save percentage

EVSV%: 2024-2025 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2024-2025 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2024-2025 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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