Unsustainable - Goalies - December 1, 2017 | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Unsustainable - Goalies - December 1, 2017

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA PKSA SV% EVSV% PKSV% ASV%
Carter Hutton 0.9126 168 137 24 0.9464 0.9562 0.8750 0.9415
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9207 601 506 82 0.9351 0.9427 0.8902 0.9307
Anton Khudobin 0.9175 308 243 57 0.9318 0.9424 0.8772 0.9304
Michal Neuvirth 0.9116 236 191 39 0.9153 0.9424 0.8205 0.9305
Darcy Kuemper 0.9112 174 150 17 0.9368 0.9400 0.9412 0.9285
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9136 591 444 127 0.9255 0.9392 0.8819 0.9279

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA PKSA SV% EVSV% PKSV% ASV%
Aaron Dell 0.9289 198 159 31 0.9242 0.9182 0.9355 0.9112
Antti Raanta 0.9166 338 279 46 0.9142 0.9104 0.9348 0.9049
Corey Crawford 0.9187 660 521 115 0.9303 0.9328 0.9304 0.9228
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9191 696 570 113 0.9325 0.9333 0.9292 0.9232
Jonathan Quick 0.9164 647 509 113 0.9289 0.9253 0.9292 0.9168
Charlie Lindgren 0.9288 250 205 41 0.9240 0.9268 0.9268 0.9180
Martin Jones 0.9177 458 338 93 0.9301 0.9290 0.9247 0.9198
Philipp Grubauer 0.9183 236 178 50 0.8856 0.8989 0.8400 0.8957
Jake Allen 0.9141 582 472 100 0.9072 0.9258 0.8400 0.9172
Maxime Lagace 0.8697 307 248 53 0.8697 0.8790 0.8302 0.8799
Jonathan Bernier 0.9141 302 232 58 0.9007 0.9224 0.8276 0.9145
Ondrej Pavelec 0.9066 144 114 29 0.8889 0.9035 0.8276 0.8994
Michal Neuvirth 0.9116 236 191 39 0.9153 0.9424 0.8205 0.9305
Brian Elliott 0.9129 548 455 84 0.9051 0.9231 0.8095 0.9150
Anton Forsberg 0.8891 187 153 31 0.9037 0.9216 0.8065 0.9138
Jacob Markstrom 0.9060 515 423 61 0.9087 0.9267 0.8033 0.9179
Cam Talbot 0.9201 629 530 85 0.9030 0.9189 0.8000 0.9117
Juuse Saros 0.9119 146 119 26 0.8699 0.8908 0.7692 0.8892
Laurent Brossoit 0.8990 169 135 27 0.8757 0.9037 0.7407 0.8996
Louis Domingue 0.9055 194 163 25 0.8557 0.8896 0.6800 0.8883
Antti Niemi 0.9119 155 131 22 0.8452 0.8779 0.6364 0.8789
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill