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Buy-Low and Sell-High

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Carter Hutton 0.9164 596 480 0.9430 0.9500
Darcy Kuemper 0.9143 448 359 0.9420 0.9471
Curtis McElhinney 0.9073 308 249 0.9318 0.9398

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9129 678 101 0.9351 0.9505 0.9213
Charlie Lindgren 0.9288 250 41 0.9240 0.9268 0.9180
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9143 345 40 0.9101 0.9250 0.9024
Aaron Dell 0.9243 617 88 0.9190 0.9205 0.9104
Tristan Jarry 0.9175 472 75 0.9195 0.9200 0.9108
Darcy Kuemper 0.9143 448 71 0.9420 0.9155 0.9342
Semyon Varlamov 0.9156 845 153 0.9124 0.9150 0.9082
Carter Hutton 0.9164 596 91 0.9430 0.9121 0.9365
Philipp Grubauer 0.9206 481 89 0.9127 0.8315 0.9214
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9198 1339 177 0.9201 0.8305 0.9237
Maxime Lagace 0.8721 383 69 0.8721 0.8261 0.8825
Jacob Markstrom 0.9063 1167 158 0.9083 0.8228 0.9141
Scott Darling 0.9140 816 94 0.8922 0.8191 0.8979
Brian Elliott 0.9129 1134 147 0.9092 0.8095 0.9173
Cam Talbot 0.9184 1184 173 0.9020 0.8092 0.9099
Michal Neuvirth 0.9115 394 59 0.9112 0.7966 0.9272
Scott Wedgewood 0.9006 558 44 0.8889 0.7955 0.8963
Mike Condon 0.9071 551 81 0.9020 0.7778 0.9161
Louis Domingue 0.9059 309 47 0.8770 0.7660 0.8979
Laurent Brossoit 0.8985 334 50 0.8862 0.7600 0.9055
Antti Niemi 0.9122 286 49 0.8846 0.7551 0.9039
Peter Budaj 0.9042 213 42 0.8779 0.7381 0.9083
Al Montoya 0.9087 178 28 0.8876 0.7143 0.9159
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2017-2018 save percentage
EVSV%
2017-2018 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2017-2018 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2017-2018 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill