Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Tristan Jarry 0.9138 282 226 0.9362 0.9558
Darcy Kuemper 0.9182 591 496 0.9357 0.9435
Jake Allen 0.9117 258 227 0.9264 0.9427
Tuukka Rask 0.9216 520 404 0.9327 0.9406

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9132 605 111 0.9190 0.9459 0.9060
Martin Jones 0.9100 640 127 0.8922 0.9449 0.8789
Aaron Dell 0.9077 224 36 0.8929 0.9444 0.8833
Jaroslav Halak 0.9167 366 34 0.9344 0.9412 0.9210
Robin Lehner 0.9184 478 73 0.9289 0.9315 0.9184
Mike Smith 0.9119 433 78 0.9053 0.9231 0.9003
Matt Murray 0.9154 534 60 0.8970 0.9167 0.8912
Ben Bishop 0.9210 541 95 0.9279 0.9158 0.9203
Jordan Binnington 0.9256 681 93 0.9251 0.9140 0.9178
Thomas Greiss 0.9157 403 46 0.9305 0.9130 0.9240
Michael Hutchinson 0.9054 225 31 0.8756 0.8387 0.8788
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9182 580 97 0.9103 0.8351 0.9153
Pavel Francouz 0.9261 249 24 0.9237 0.8333 0.9220
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9077 577 83 0.8960 0.8313 0.9042
Tristan Jarry 0.9138 282 47 0.9362 0.8298 0.9411
Jonathan Quick 0.9131 531 93 0.8832 0.8280 0.8886
Jack Campbell 0.9186 273 33 0.8938 0.8182 0.8976
Jimmy Howard 0.9132 415 66 0.8867 0.8182 0.8966
Corey Crawford 0.9175 483 59 0.9089 0.7966 0.9170
Keith Kinkaid 0.9051 192 29 0.8750 0.7931 0.8900
Jake Allen 0.9117 258 24 0.9264 0.7917 0.9307
Laurent Brossoit 0.9067 235 32 0.8851 0.7813 0.8983
Cory Schneider 0.9179 176 24 0.8523 0.7500 0.8678
Pekka Rinne 0.9180 414 57 0.8986 0.7368 0.9171
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill