Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Tristan Jarry 0.9182 461 380 0.9393 0.9526
Jake Allen 0.9122 377 323 0.9310 0.9443
Anton Khudobin 0.9181 447 359 0.9284 0.9415

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Aaron Dell 0.9075 361 57 0.8975 0.9474 0.8856
Jaroslav Halak 0.9165 472 47 0.9237 0.9362 0.9117
Robin Lehner 0.9183 723 118 0.9239 0.9322 0.9157
Martin Jones 0.9094 779 153 0.8883 0.9150 0.8808
Mike Smith 0.9115 506 81 0.8933 0.9136 0.8893
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9130 790 134 0.9101 0.9104 0.9048
David Rittich 0.9111 926 143 0.9147 0.9091 0.9119
Jake Allen 0.9122 377 44 0.9310 0.8409 0.9319
Henrik Lundqvist 0.9182 697 117 0.9096 0.8376 0.9143
Michael Hutchinson 0.9060 255 36 0.8863 0.8333 0.8902
Cam Talbot 0.9149 332 35 0.9127 0.8286 0.9163
Carter Hutton 0.9113 492 79 0.8943 0.8228 0.9084
Jack Campbell 0.9170 355 45 0.8930 0.8222 0.8969
Jimmy Howard 0.9131 460 66 0.8870 0.8182 0.8947
Jonathan Quick 0.9132 740 122 0.8932 0.8033 0.9024
Corey Crawford 0.9172 643 70 0.9051 0.8000 0.9123
Laurent Brossoit 0.9063 303 39 0.8878 0.7949 0.8972
Keith Kinkaid 0.9051 192 29 0.8750 0.7931 0.8900
Pekka Rinne 0.9178 559 79 0.8962 0.7722 0.9136
Cory Schneider 0.9179 176 24 0.8523 0.7500 0.8678
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill