Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Tuukka Rask 0.9220 1026 799 0.9318 0.9412
Anton Khudobin 0.9184 711 585 0.9269 0.9402
Chris Driedger 0.9269 265 230 0.9321 0.9391

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average is typically .875). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Igor Shesterkin 0.9386 293 36 0.9386 0.9722 0.9258
Mike Smith 0.9117 927 144 0.9051 0.9236 0.9001
Robin Lehner 0.9179 1152 176 0.9184 0.9205 0.9125
Martin Jones 0.9095 958 176 0.8935 0.9148 0.8875
John Gibson 0.9187 1349 156 0.9044 0.8397 0.9070
Malcolm Subban 0.9002 516 81 0.8934 0.8395 0.8985
Linus Ullmark 0.9111 1031 152 0.9137 0.8355 0.9171
Carter Hutton 0.9104 755 103 0.8940 0.8350 0.9033
Devan Dubnyk 0.9148 797 127 0.8934 0.8346 0.8993
Jack Campbell 0.9166 696 78 0.9037 0.8333 0.9056
Charlie Lindgren 0.9070 117 23 0.8803 0.8261 0.8948
Brian Elliott 0.9116 738 92 0.8984 0.8261 0.9029
Jonathan Quick 0.9131 1073 147 0.8975 0.8231 0.9015
Jimmy Howard 0.9125 800 122 0.8863 0.8197 0.8952
Corey Crawford 0.9174 953 104 0.9119 0.8173 0.9167
Michael Hutchinson 0.9050 421 54 0.8860 0.8148 0.8937
Cory Schneider 0.9176 230 32 0.8522 0.8125 0.8594
Sam Montembeault 0.8916 290 37 0.8897 0.8108 0.8947
Adin Hill 0.9068 343 45 0.9184 0.8000 0.9230
Keith Kinkaid 0.9051 192 29 0.8750 0.7931 0.8900
Laurent Brossoit 0.9048 445 58 0.8876 0.7931 0.8975
Pekka Rinne 0.9175 935 129 0.8984 0.7752 0.9134
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2019-2020 save percentage
EVSV%
2019-2020 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2019-2020 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2019-2020 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill