Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

Features

The latest fantasy hockey advice and analysis.

Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9178 154 123 0.9481 0.9756
Jake Allen 0.9130 180 136 0.9333 0.9559
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9128 221 204 0.9367 0.9412
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9195 343 285 0.9329 0.9404

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Devan Dubnyk 0.9146 156 37 0.9167 0.9730 0.8924
Jonathan Quick 0.9131 194 31 0.8866 0.9677 0.8676
Cam Talbot 0.9154 162 22 0.9198 0.9545 0.9044
Jaroslav Halak 0.9166 112 22 0.9375 0.9545 0.9214
Philipp Grubauer 0.9209 282 53 0.9362 0.9434 0.9207
Brian Elliott 0.9118 140 29 0.9286 0.9310 0.9173
John Gibson 0.9184 355 52 0.9211 0.9231 0.9138
Malcolm Subban 0.9003 132 25 0.9167 0.9200 0.9087
Antti Raanta 0.9202 112 24 0.9018 0.9167 0.8939
Darcy Kuemper 0.9180 335 69 0.9194 0.9130 0.9107
Laurent Brossoit 0.9068 110 21 0.9182 0.9048 0.9122
Linus Ullmark 0.9115 216 42 0.9120 0.9048 0.9068
Robin Lehner 0.9177 136 31 0.8897 0.9032 0.8877
Tristan Jarry 0.9093 248 41 0.8750 0.8049 0.8850
Frederik Andersen 0.9160 393 55 0.9008 0.8000 0.9137
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9060 354 35 0.8870 0.8000 0.8915
Thomas Greiss 0.9140 328 55 0.8994 0.8000 0.9104
Jake Oettinger 0.9097 144 25 0.9097 0.8000 0.9194
Ville Husso 0.8750 128 26 0.8750 0.7692 0.8950
Marcus Hogberg 0.8929 215 25 0.8605 0.7600 0.8723
Juuse Saros 0.9158 233 46 0.8798 0.7391 0.9110
Martin Jones 0.9085 276 42 0.8732 0.7381 0.8948
Carter Hart 0.9130 292 41 0.8973 0.7317 0.9130
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill