Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 17, 2021 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9178	154	123	0.9481	0.9756
Jake Allen	0.9130	180	136	0.9333	0.9559
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9128	221	204	0.9367	0.9412
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9195	343	285	0.9329	0.9404

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Devan Dubnyk	0.9146	156	37	0.9167	0.9730	0.8924
Jonathan Quick	0.9131	194	31	0.8866	0.9677	0.8676
Cam Talbot	0.9154	162	22	0.9198	0.9545	0.9044
Jaroslav Halak	0.9166	112	22	0.9375	0.9545	0.9214
Philipp Grubauer	0.9209	282	53	0.9362	0.9434	0.9207
Brian Elliott	0.9118	140	29	0.9286	0.9310	0.9173
John Gibson	0.9184	355	52	0.9211	0.9231	0.9138
Malcolm Subban	0.9003	132	25	0.9167	0.9200	0.9087
Antti Raanta	0.9202	112	24	0.9018	0.9167	0.8939
Darcy Kuemper	0.9180	335	69	0.9194	0.9130	0.9107
Laurent Brossoit	0.9068	110	21	0.9182	0.9048	0.9122
Linus Ullmark	0.9115	216	42	0.9120	0.9048	0.9068
Robin Lehner	0.9177	136	31	0.8897	0.9032	0.8877
Tristan Jarry	0.9093	248	41	0.8750	0.8049	0.8850
Frederik Andersen	0.9160	393	55	0.9008	0.8000	0.9137
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9060	354	35	0.8870	0.8000	0.8915
Thomas Greiss	0.9140	328	55	0.8994	0.8000	0.9104
Jake Oettinger	0.9097	144	25	0.9097	0.8000	0.9194
Ville Husso	0.8750	128	26	0.8750	0.7692	0.8950
Marcus Hogberg	0.8929	215	25	0.8605	0.7600	0.8723
Juuse Saros	0.9158	233	46	0.8798	0.7391	0.9110
Martin Jones	0.9085	276	42	0.8732	0.7381	0.8948
Carter Hart	0.9130	292	41	0.8973	0.7317	0.9130

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2020-2021 save percentage

EVSV%: 2020-2021 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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