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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 24, 2021   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Mackenzie Blackwood0.91762462030.93500.9655
Jake Allen0.91302191640.93150.9451
Calvin Petersen0.92382822280.92550.9430
Marc-Andre Fleury0.91302942620.94220.9427

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Jonathan Quick0.9133247340.90280.97060.8856
Jaroslav Halak0.9166138240.92750.95830.9184
Cam Talbot0.9154162220.91980.95450.9044
Devan Dubnyk0.9145201420.91040.95240.8935
Philipp Grubauer0.9208339620.93220.93550.9188
Brian Elliott0.9118152290.92760.93100.9156
Mike Smith0.9117166260.93370.92310.9232
Laurent Brossoit0.9081139260.93530.92310.9261
Marc-Andre Fleury0.9130294250.94220.92000.9307
Malcolm Subban0.9003132250.91670.92000.9087
Antti Raanta0.9202112240.90180.91670.8939
Chris Driedger0.9314281330.92880.90910.9201
John Gibson0.9178436650.90830.90770.9053
Anton Khudobin0.9189235640.91490.90630.9135
Darcy Kuemper0.9178414840.91550.90480.9108
Robin Lehner0.9177136310.88970.90320.8877
Jake Allen0.9130219510.93150.90200.9326
Vitek Vanecek0.9075465650.90750.83080.9130
James Reimer0.9130299580.89630.82760.9054
Tristan Jarry0.9108337500.89320.82000.9001
Carey Price0.9171309660.89320.81820.9057
Frederik Andersen0.9161454590.90530.81360.9146
Thomas Greiss0.9136341550.89150.80000.9021
Jake Oettinger0.9097144250.90970.80000.9194
Joonas Korpisalo0.9057394420.88580.78570.8924
Ville Husso0.8750128260.87500.76920.8950
Jonathan Bernier0.9125255300.91370.76670.9215
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9176246340.93500.76470.9489
Carter Hart0.9117348530.89080.75470.9057
Marcus Hogberg0.8924220280.85910.75000.8734
Martin Jones0.9084341500.87680.74000.8972
Juuse Saros0.9157254460.88190.73910.9099


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2020-2021 save percentage

EVSV%: 2020-2021 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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