Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9176 246 203 0.9350 0.9655
Jake Allen 0.9130 219 164 0.9315 0.9451
Calvin Petersen 0.9238 282 228 0.9255 0.9430
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9130 294 262 0.9422 0.9427

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Jonathan Quick 0.9133 247 34 0.9028 0.9706 0.8856
Jaroslav Halak 0.9166 138 24 0.9275 0.9583 0.9184
Cam Talbot 0.9154 162 22 0.9198 0.9545 0.9044
Devan Dubnyk 0.9145 201 42 0.9104 0.9524 0.8935
Philipp Grubauer 0.9208 339 62 0.9322 0.9355 0.9188
Brian Elliott 0.9118 152 29 0.9276 0.9310 0.9156
Mike Smith 0.9117 166 26 0.9337 0.9231 0.9232
Laurent Brossoit 0.9081 139 26 0.9353 0.9231 0.9261
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9130 294 25 0.9422 0.9200 0.9307
Malcolm Subban 0.9003 132 25 0.9167 0.9200 0.9087
Antti Raanta 0.9202 112 24 0.9018 0.9167 0.8939
Chris Driedger 0.9314 281 33 0.9288 0.9091 0.9201
John Gibson 0.9178 436 65 0.9083 0.9077 0.9053
Anton Khudobin 0.9189 235 64 0.9149 0.9063 0.9135
Darcy Kuemper 0.9178 414 84 0.9155 0.9048 0.9108
Robin Lehner 0.9177 136 31 0.8897 0.9032 0.8877
Jake Allen 0.9130 219 51 0.9315 0.9020 0.9326
Vitek Vanecek 0.9075 465 65 0.9075 0.8308 0.9130
James Reimer 0.9130 299 58 0.8963 0.8276 0.9054
Tristan Jarry 0.9108 337 50 0.8932 0.8200 0.9001
Carey Price 0.9171 309 66 0.8932 0.8182 0.9057
Frederik Andersen 0.9161 454 59 0.9053 0.8136 0.9146
Thomas Greiss 0.9136 341 55 0.8915 0.8000 0.9021
Jake Oettinger 0.9097 144 25 0.9097 0.8000 0.9194
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9057 394 42 0.8858 0.7857 0.8924
Ville Husso 0.8750 128 26 0.8750 0.7692 0.8950
Jonathan Bernier 0.9125 255 30 0.9137 0.7667 0.9215
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9176 246 34 0.9350 0.7647 0.9489
Carter Hart 0.9117 348 53 0.8908 0.7547 0.9057
Marcus Hogberg 0.8924 220 28 0.8591 0.7500 0.8734
Martin Jones 0.9084 341 50 0.8768 0.7400 0.8972
Juuse Saros 0.9157 254 46 0.8819 0.7391 0.9099
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2020-2021 save percentage
EVSV%
2020-2021 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2020-2021 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2020-2021 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill