Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9168 211 159 0.9479 0.9623
Jonathan Quick 0.9130 211 173 0.9242 0.9480
Carter Hart 0.9068 230 192 0.9261 0.9479
James Reimer 0.9135 167 153 0.9461 0.9477
Frederik Andersen 0.9159 280 229 0.9393 0.9476
Jacob Markstrom 0.9107 282 236 0.9397 0.9449
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9218 199 162 0.9397 0.9444
Ilya Sorokin 0.9253 294 251 0.9388 0.9442
Jonathan Bernier 0.9126 145 105 0.9103 0.9429

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
John Gibson 0.9169 330 47 0.9273 0.9574 0.9146
Igor Shesterkin 0.9226 346 56 0.9306 0.9464 0.9174
Mikko Koskinen 0.9080 238 33 0.9202 0.9394 0.9093
Tristan Jarry 0.9135 285 27 0.9263 0.9259 0.9180
Adin Hill 0.9087 187 26 0.9037 0.9231 0.9019
Darcy Kuemper 0.9165 249 39 0.9076 0.9231 0.8998
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9130 288 37 0.8924 0.9189 0.8841
Jordan Binnington 0.9156 305 37 0.9279 0.9189 0.9185
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9168 211 48 0.9479 0.9167 0.9463
Kevin Lankinen 0.9072 165 24 0.8909 0.9167 0.8797
Anton Forsberg 0.9013 96 22 0.8854 0.9091 0.8794
Ilya Sorokin 0.9253 294 33 0.9388 0.9091 0.9319
Mike Smith 0.9121 100 21 0.9200 0.9048 0.9126
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9218 199 31 0.9397 0.9032 0.9321
Dustin Tokarski 0.9039 194 30 0.9021 0.9000 0.8951
Jack Campbell 0.9187 294 30 0.9286 0.9000 0.9205
Cal Petersen 0.9148 182 29 0.9066 0.8276 0.9175
Sam Montembeault 0.8914 71 28 0.8873 0.8214 0.9194
Jake Allen 0.9115 343 61 0.9009 0.8197 0.9099
Matt Murray 0.9114 146 27 0.8973 0.8148 0.9070
Jonathan Quick 0.9130 211 27 0.9242 0.8148 0.9349
Karel Vejmelka 0.9132 265 43 0.9132 0.8140 0.9237
Thatcher Demko 0.9115 317 59 0.9180 0.8136 0.9276
Carter Hart 0.9068 230 32 0.9261 0.8125 0.9349
Jonathan Bernier 0.9126 145 32 0.9103 0.8125 0.9308
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9165 270 50 0.9037 0.7600 0.9277
Anton Khudobin 0.9168 122 24 0.8852 0.7500 0.9099
Thomas Greiss 0.9141 224 27 0.9063 0.7037 0.9268
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2021-2022 save percentage
EVSV%
2021-2022 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill