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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 10, 2021   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Sergei Bobrovsky0.91682111590.94790.9623
Jonathan Quick0.91302111730.92420.9480
Carter Hart0.90682301920.92610.9479
James Reimer0.91351671530.94610.9477
Frederik Andersen0.91592802290.93930.9476
Jacob Markstrom0.91072822360.93970.9449
Elvis Merzlikins0.92181991620.93970.9444
Ilya Sorokin0.92532942510.93880.9442
Jonathan Bernier0.91261451050.91030.9429

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

John Gibson0.9169330470.92730.95740.9146
Igor Shesterkin0.9226346560.93060.94640.9174
Mikko Koskinen0.9080238330.92020.93940.9093
Tristan Jarry0.9135285270.92630.92590.9180
Adin Hill0.9087187260.90370.92310.9019
Darcy Kuemper0.9165249390.90760.92310.8998
Marc-Andre Fleury0.9130288370.89240.91890.8841
Jordan Binnington0.9156305370.92790.91890.9185
Sergei Bobrovsky0.9168211480.94790.91670.9463
Kevin Lankinen0.9072165240.89090.91670.8797
Anton Forsberg0.901396220.88540.90910.8794
Ilya Sorokin0.9253294330.93880.90910.9319
Mike Smith0.9121100210.92000.90480.9126
Elvis Merzlikins0.9218199310.93970.90320.9321
Dustin Tokarski0.9039194300.90210.90000.8951
Jack Campbell0.9187294300.92860.90000.9205
Cal Petersen0.9148182290.90660.82760.9175
Sam Montembeault0.891471280.88730.82140.9194
Jake Allen0.9115343610.90090.81970.9099
Matt Murray0.9114146270.89730.81480.9070
Jonathan Quick0.9130211270.92420.81480.9349
Karel Vejmelka0.9132265430.91320.81400.9237
Thatcher Demko0.9115317590.91800.81360.9276
Carter Hart0.9068230320.92610.81250.9349
Jonathan Bernier0.9126145320.91030.81250.9308
Connor Hellebuyck0.9165270500.90370.76000.9277
Anton Khudobin0.9168122240.88520.75000.9099
Thomas Greiss0.9141224270.90630.70370.9268


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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