Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Jonathan Quick 0.9132 245 202 0.9347 0.9554
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9169 294 228 0.9422 0.9518
Carter Hart 0.9084 337 272 0.9347 0.9485
Jacob Markstrom 0.9109 352 293 0.9375 0.9454
Frederik Andersen 0.9159 308 252 0.9383 0.9444
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9167 360 288 0.9139 0.9444
Jack Campbell 0.9210 385 338 0.9429 0.9438
James Reimer 0.9136 227 208 0.9427 0.9423
Juuse Saros 0.9209 388 312 0.9278 0.9423
Jaroslav Halak 0.9160 124 103 0.9032 0.9417

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
John Gibson 0.9169 412 52 0.9248 0.9615 0.9118
Martin Jones 0.9085 130 25 0.9308 0.9600 0.9138
Dan Vladar 0.9067 119 22 0.9328 0.9545 0.9255
Igor Shesterkin 0.9227 413 61 0.9298 0.9344 0.9188
Mikko Koskinen 0.9074 332 54 0.9096 0.9259 0.9007
Tristan Jarry 0.9128 374 40 0.9171 0.9250 0.9118
Jack Campbell 0.9210 385 37 0.9429 0.9189 0.9316
Kevin Lankinen 0.9072 165 24 0.8909 0.9167 0.8797
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9169 294 59 0.9422 0.9153 0.9379
Darcy Kuemper 0.9167 301 46 0.9136 0.9130 0.9069
Adin Hill 0.9072 217 34 0.8940 0.9118 0.8971
Ilya Samsonov 0.9067 141 22 0.8936 0.9091 0.8939
Mike Smith 0.9121 100 21 0.9200 0.9048 0.9126
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9130 311 41 0.8971 0.9024 0.8905
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9204 267 41 0.9251 0.9024 0.9181
Cal Petersen 0.9142 205 29 0.9024 0.8276 0.9158
Sam Montembeault 0.8915 136 33 0.8897 0.8182 0.9039
Matt Murray 0.9114 146 27 0.8973 0.8148 0.9070
Thatcher Demko 0.9088 382 72 0.8979 0.8056 0.9106
Jonathan Bernier 0.9126 188 36 0.9096 0.8056 0.9258
Thomas Greiss 0.9141 290 39 0.9069 0.7949 0.9175
Anton Khudobin 0.9169 155 33 0.8968 0.7879 0.9166
Karel Vejmelka 0.8971 311 49 0.8971 0.7755 0.9123
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9167 360 61 0.9139 0.7705 0.9321
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2021-2022 save percentage
EVSV%
2021-2022 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill