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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 17, 2021   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Jonathan Quick0.91322452020.93470.9554
Sergei Bobrovsky0.91692942280.94220.9518
Carter Hart0.90843372720.93470.9485
Jacob Markstrom0.91093522930.93750.9454
Frederik Andersen0.91593082520.93830.9444
Connor Hellebuyck0.91673602880.91390.9444
Jack Campbell0.92103853380.94290.9438
James Reimer0.91362272080.94270.9423
Juuse Saros0.92093883120.92780.9423
Jaroslav Halak0.91601241030.90320.9417

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

John Gibson0.9169412520.92480.96150.9118
Martin Jones0.9085130250.93080.96000.9138
Dan Vladar0.9067119220.93280.95450.9255
Igor Shesterkin0.9227413610.92980.93440.9188
Mikko Koskinen0.9074332540.90960.92590.9007
Tristan Jarry0.9128374400.91710.92500.9118
Jack Campbell0.9210385370.94290.91890.9316
Kevin Lankinen0.9072165240.89090.91670.8797
Sergei Bobrovsky0.9169294590.94220.91530.9379
Darcy Kuemper0.9167301460.91360.91300.9069
Adin Hill0.9072217340.89400.91180.8971
Ilya Samsonov0.9067141220.89360.90910.8939
Mike Smith0.9121100210.92000.90480.9126
Marc-Andre Fleury0.9130311410.89710.90240.8905
Elvis Merzlikins0.9204267410.92510.90240.9181
Cal Petersen0.9142205290.90240.82760.9158
Sam Montembeault0.8915136330.88970.81820.9039
Matt Murray0.9114146270.89730.81480.9070
Thatcher Demko0.9088382720.89790.80560.9106
Jonathan Bernier0.9126188360.90960.80560.9258
Thomas Greiss0.9141290390.90690.79490.9175
Anton Khudobin0.9169155330.89680.78790.9166
Karel Vejmelka0.8971311490.89710.77550.9123
Connor Hellebuyck0.9167360610.91390.77050.9321


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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