Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies | Fantasy Hockey Advice and Analysis | leftwinglock.com

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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Unsustainable Even-strength Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Jonathan Quick 0.9133 309 258 0.9385 0.9535
Dan Vladar 0.9155 147 117 0.9456 0.9487
Jacob Markstrom 0.9112 436 364 0.9404 0.9478
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9168 333 265 0.9369 0.9472
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9170 427 345 0.9204 0.9449
Jack Campbell 0.9216 444 390 0.9437 0.9436
Frederik Andersen 0.9160 383 318 0.9373 0.9434
Eric Comrie 0.8892 137 123 0.9197 0.9431
Jonathan Bernier 0.9127 202 155 0.9158 0.9419
Jaroslav Halak 0.9160 124 103 0.9032 0.9417
Carter Hart 0.9082 404 336 0.9282 0.9405
James Reimer 0.9137 298 263 0.9396 0.9392

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Unsustainable Penalty Kill Save Percentage Data

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Martin Jones 0.9084 174 32 0.9195 0.9688 0.9012
Dan Vladar 0.9155 147 27 0.9456 0.9630 0.9355
John Gibson 0.9170 478 66 0.9247 0.9545 0.9123
Ilya Samsonov 0.9105 197 33 0.9239 0.9394 0.9166
Tristan Jarry 0.9146 455 47 0.9297 0.9362 0.9217
James Reimer 0.9137 298 31 0.9396 0.9355 0.9279
Stuart Skinner 0.9174 180 27 0.9278 0.9259 0.9179
Mikko Koskinen 0.9074 332 54 0.9096 0.9259 0.9007
Jack Campbell 0.9216 444 40 0.9437 0.9250 0.9314
Igor Shesterkin 0.9230 447 63 0.9306 0.9206 0.9215
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9195 331 48 0.9184 0.9167 0.9123
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9132 421 56 0.9121 0.9107 0.9041
Philipp Grubauer 0.9181 374 44 0.8824 0.9091 0.8785
Jeremy Swayman 0.9289 207 32 0.9082 0.9063 0.9034
Mike Smith 0.9121 100 21 0.9200 0.9048 0.9126
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9168 333 61 0.9369 0.9016 0.9343
Alex Nedeljkovic 0.9233 360 50 0.9139 0.9000 0.9070
Ilya Sorokin 0.9209 385 40 0.9247 0.9000 0.9231
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9046 208 29 0.8942 0.8276 0.8975
Anton Khudobin 0.9162 181 39 0.8729 0.8205 0.8846
Matt Murray 0.9114 146 27 0.8973 0.8148 0.9070
Jonathan Bernier 0.9127 202 36 0.9158 0.8056 0.9301
Thomas Greiss 0.9138 312 41 0.9006 0.8049 0.9099
Karel Vejmelka 0.9054 349 56 0.9054 0.8036 0.9164
Thatcher Demko 0.9096 474 86 0.9051 0.8023 0.9177
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9170 427 67 0.9204 0.7910 0.9325
Sam Montembeault 0.8929 184 36 0.8967 0.7778 0.9155
Legend
CSV%
Career Save Percentage
SA
Shots against
EVSA
Even-strength shots against
PKSA
Shots against while on the penalty kill
SV%
2021-2022 save percentage
EVSV%
2021-2022 even-strength save percentage
PKSV%
2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill
ASV%
2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill