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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 24, 2021   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Jonathan Quick0.91333092580.93850.9535
Dan Vladar0.91551471170.94560.9487
Jacob Markstrom0.91124363640.94040.9478
Sergei Bobrovsky0.91683332650.93690.9472
Connor Hellebuyck0.91704273450.92040.9449
Jack Campbell0.92164443900.94370.9436
Frederik Andersen0.91603833180.93730.9434
Eric Comrie0.88921371230.91970.9431
Jonathan Bernier0.91272021550.91580.9419
Jaroslav Halak0.91601241030.90320.9417
Carter Hart0.90824043360.92820.9405
James Reimer0.91372982630.93960.9392

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Martin Jones0.9084174320.91950.96880.9012
Dan Vladar0.9155147270.94560.96300.9355
John Gibson0.9170478660.92470.95450.9123
Ilya Samsonov0.9105197330.92390.93940.9166
Tristan Jarry0.9146455470.92970.93620.9217
James Reimer0.9137298310.93960.93550.9279
Stuart Skinner0.9174180270.92780.92590.9179
Mikko Koskinen0.9074332540.90960.92590.9007
Jack Campbell0.9216444400.94370.92500.9314
Igor Shesterkin0.9230447630.93060.92060.9215
Elvis Merzlikins0.9195331480.91840.91670.9123
Marc-Andre Fleury0.9132421560.91210.91070.9041
Philipp Grubauer0.9181374440.88240.90910.8785
Jeremy Swayman0.9289207320.90820.90630.9034
Mike Smith0.9121100210.92000.90480.9126
Sergei Bobrovsky0.9168333610.93690.90160.9343
Alex Nedeljkovic0.9233360500.91390.90000.9070
Ilya Sorokin0.9209385400.92470.90000.9231
Joonas Korpisalo0.9046208290.89420.82760.8975
Anton Khudobin0.9162181390.87290.82050.8846
Matt Murray0.9114146270.89730.81480.9070
Jonathan Bernier0.9127202360.91580.80560.9301
Thomas Greiss0.9138312410.90060.80490.9099
Karel Vejmelka0.9054349560.90540.80360.9164
Thatcher Demko0.9096474860.90510.80230.9177
Connor Hellebuyck0.9170427670.92040.79100.9325
Sam Montembeault0.8929184360.89670.77780.9155


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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