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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

December 1, 2021   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Jake Oettinger0.91821211020.95870.9706
Jaroslav Halak0.91601661390.90960.9496
Jack Campbell0.92255164540.94570.9493
Dan Vladar0.91551471170.94560.9487
Jacob Markstrom0.91134854030.93810.9454
Anthony Stolarz0.91611711370.92980.9416
Sergei Bobrovsky0.91684153340.93010.9401
Tristan Jarry0.91645494820.93810.9398

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Dan Vladar0.9155147270.94560.96300.9355
John Gibson0.9165578830.91520.95180.9033
Martin Jones0.9085253380.92090.94740.9074
Tristan Jarry0.9164549490.93810.93880.9284
Igor Shesterkin0.9238504780.93250.93590.9211
Elvis Merzlikins0.9204417610.92330.93440.9143
James Reimer0.9138407450.93370.93330.9228
Mikko Koskinen0.9077397600.91180.93330.9017
Stuart Skinner0.9174180270.92780.92590.9179
Ilya Samsonov0.9097330510.91520.92160.9114
Philipp Grubauer0.9183436510.88990.92160.8838
Jeremy Swayman0.9268262360.90840.91670.9018
Marc-Andre Fleury0.9132442570.91400.91230.9058
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9114285320.91580.90630.9148
Mike Smith0.9121100210.92000.90480.9126
Ilya Sorokin0.9223415410.92770.90240.9252
Sergei Bobrovsky0.9168415700.93010.90000.9286
Karel Vejmelka0.9165395630.91650.82540.9237
Jake Allen0.9117503780.90660.82050.9136
Anton Khudobin0.9162181390.87290.82050.8846
Thatcher Demko0.9100564980.90780.81630.9188
Jonathan Bernier0.9126232380.91380.81580.9241
Matt Murray0.9112173320.89020.81250.9001
Thomas Greiss0.9138312410.90060.80490.9099
Connor Hellebuyck0.9169523800.91780.80000.9275
Sam Montembeault0.8931223400.89690.80000.9129
Jaroslav Halak0.9160166250.90960.68000.9362


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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