Skip to Content

Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

December 29, 2021   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Anthony Stolarz0.91792932290.93170.9520
Charlie Lindgren0.91341181030.95760.9515
Jack Campbell0.92186815880.93690.9422
Dan Vladar0.91012071680.92750.9405

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

John Gibson0.9163720980.91250.94900.9012
Igor Shesterkin0.9253557920.93720.94570.9239
Tristan Jarry0.9161694690.93230.94200.9222
Stuart Skinner0.9110299420.91640.92860.9097
James Reimer0.9137517620.92840.91940.9192
Casey DeSmith0.9148190240.90530.91670.8981
Ilya Sorokin0.9221618790.92560.91140.9227
Anton Forsberg0.9035391770.90790.90910.9005
Kaapo Kahkonen0.9040199320.90450.90630.8971
Mike Smith0.9121100210.92000.90480.9126
Sergei Bobrovsky0.9164532900.91730.90000.9147
Scott Wedgewood0.8995510760.89410.82890.8993
Kevin Lankinen0.9041319580.88400.82760.8960
Thatcher Demko0.91267981320.91850.82580.9265
Karel Vejmelka0.9024461740.90240.82430.9119
Alexandar Georgiev0.9105325450.90150.82220.9099
Anton Khudobin0.9162181390.87290.82050.8846
Cal Petersen0.9122319500.89340.82000.9056
Jonathan Bernier0.9124264440.90150.81820.9115
Chris Driedger0.9240193270.89640.81480.9062
Matt Murray0.9112173320.89020.81250.9001
Jake Oettinger0.9142257320.92220.81250.9247
Connor Hellebuyck0.91677461150.91550.80870.9251
Brian Elliott0.9103176250.90340.80000.9113
Thomas Greiss0.9134383440.89300.79550.9034
Jaroslav Halak0.9160189260.90480.69230.9265


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

Comments (0)

Leave a comment

In order to leave a comment, you must be a registered user at our website and logged in.

Login | Register