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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 26, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments


Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Charlie Lindgren0.91341181030.95760.9515
Pavel Francouz0.92471901640.93160.9512
Jaroslav Halak0.91612241940.91520.9433
Ville Husso0.91694063350.94330.9403

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Ville Husso0.9169406600.94330.95000.9288
John Gibson0.91689521380.91910.94200.9075
Igor Shesterkin0.92668231300.93680.93850.9246
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen0.9131277300.91700.93330.9077
James Reimer0.9131637730.91370.93150.9068
Anton Forsberg0.9045465860.91180.91860.9027
Tristan Jarry0.9157959910.92600.91210.9183
Mackenzie Blackwood0.9082663670.89440.91040.8928
Sergei Bobrovsky0.91679151440.92240.90970.9167
Ilya Sorokin0.9227730870.92600.90800.9223
Michael Houser0.917477210.94810.90480.9479
Antti Raanta0.9191218300.90830.90000.9099
Braden Holtby0.9148602650.91690.83080.9177
Chris Driedger0.9221280470.89640.82980.9048
Connor Hellebuyck0.916310491510.91130.82780.9167
Alexandar Georgiev0.9102481630.90230.82540.9083
Thatcher Demko0.91259971600.91680.81880.9257
Jonathan Bernier0.9124264440.90150.81820.9115
Cal Petersen0.9125430640.90000.81250.9128
Pavel Francouz0.9247190210.93160.80950.9375
Laurent Brossoit0.9066360520.89720.80770.9090
Anton Khudobin0.9161231460.87880.80430.8926
Jake Oettinger0.9106375390.90930.79490.9148
Thomas Greiss0.9133436520.89450.78850.9054
David Rittich0.9060170270.88240.77780.8955
Aaron Dell0.9045354440.89270.72730.9092
Jaroslav Halak0.9161224270.91520.70370.9312


CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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