Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

April 20, 2022 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Charlie Lindgren	0.9134	118	103	0.9576	0.9515

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Spencer Martin	0.9159	118	21	0.9576	0.9524	0.9428
James Reimer	0.9130	1346	165	0.9123	0.9394	0.9042
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9131	277	30	0.9170	0.9333	0.9077
Igor Shesterkin	0.9288	1551	238	0.9362	0.9244	0.9259
Semyon Varlamov	0.9162	896	111	0.9141	0.9189	0.9072
Anton Forsberg	0.9091	1334	229	0.9168	0.9170	0.9089
Anthony Stolarz	0.9153	727	118	0.9175	0.9153	0.9108
Felix Sandstrom	0.9153	118	23	0.9153	0.9130	0.9150
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9082	663	67	0.8944	0.9104	0.8928
Michael Houser	0.9174	77	21	0.9481	0.9048	0.9479
Tristan Jarry	0.9149	1711	189	0.9193	0.9048	0.9136
Frederik Andersen	0.9161	1431	184	0.9224	0.9022	0.9152
Brian Elliott	0.9105	434	70	0.9147	0.9000	0.9112
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9016	634	93	0.8770	0.8280	0.8842
Braden Holtby	0.9146	700	81	0.9129	0.8272	0.9144
Kevin Lankinen	0.9004	844	114	0.8874	0.8246	0.8944
Jonathan Bernier	0.9124	264	44	0.9015	0.8182	0.9115
Laurent Brossoit	0.9053	588	85	0.8946	0.8118	0.9043
Eric Comrie	0.8986	440	63	0.9136	0.8095	0.9242
Anton Khudobin	0.9161	231	46	0.8788	0.8043	0.8926
David Rittich	0.9051	324	40	0.8827	0.8000	0.8929
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9087	744	94	0.8978	0.7979	0.9062
Jaroslav Halak	0.9157	400	54	0.9025	0.7963	0.9107
Chris Driedger	0.9168	640	101	0.8969	0.7921	0.9102
Thomas Greiss	0.9125	819	101	0.8938	0.7921	0.9031
Cayden Primeau	0.8737	302	32	0.8675	0.7813	0.8751
Nico Daws	0.8930	617	66	0.8930	0.7727	0.9035
Aaron Dell	0.9045	354	44	0.8927	0.7273	0.9092

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2021-2022 save percentage

EVSV%: 2021-2022 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2021-2022 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2021-2022 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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