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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 2, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Stuart Skinner 0.9202 134 106 0.9552 0.9717
Jake Oettinger 0.9165 186 148 0.9516 0.9595
Logan Thompson 0.9204 195 156 0.9385 0.9551
Carter Hart 0.9073 262 215 0.9427 0.9535
Adin Hill 0.9100 116 107 0.9397 0.9439
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9160 247 210 0.9312 0.9429

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
James Reimer 0.9128 221 28 0.9140 1.0000 0.8953
Ilya Sorokin 0.9245 217 44 0.9355 0.9773 0.9139
Linus Ullmark 0.9143 235 38 0.9319 0.9737 0.9160
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9105 213 38 0.8638 0.9474 0.8577
Jake Oettinger 0.9165 186 37 0.9516 0.9189 0.9441
Kaapo Kahkonen 0.9062 148 24 0.8784 0.9167 0.8833
Alex Stalock 0.9086 187 35 0.9144 0.9143 0.9044
Stuart Skinner 0.9202 134 22 0.9552 0.9091 0.9538
Jake Allen 0.9111 217 43 0.9078 0.9070 0.9004
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9189 204 43 0.9020 0.9070 0.9019
Sam Montembeault 0.8938 102 21 0.9314 0.9048 0.9225
Juuse Saros 0.9188 246 61 0.8984 0.9016 0.8975
Tristan Jarry 0.9143 251 47 0.9044 0.8298 0.9153
Spencer Knight 0.9078 99 28 0.8990 0.8214 0.9150
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9066 124 22 0.8790 0.8182 0.8924
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9159 174 31 0.8966 0.8065 0.9044
Jack Campbell 0.9144 202 48 0.8812 0.7917 0.9019
John Gibson 0.9140 269 51 0.8885 0.7843 0.9127
Cal Petersen 0.9061 144 27 0.8681 0.7407 0.8901
Martin Jones 0.9069 174 24 0.8793 0.7083 0.9049
Thatcher Demko 0.9104 259 30 0.8764 0.6667 0.9072

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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