Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 2, 2022 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Stuart Skinner	0.9202	134	106	0.9552	0.9717
Jake Oettinger	0.9165	186	148	0.9516	0.9595
Logan Thompson	0.9204	195	156	0.9385	0.9551
Carter Hart	0.9073	262	215	0.9427	0.9535
Adin Hill	0.9100	116	107	0.9397	0.9439
Connor Hellebuyck	0.9160	247	210	0.9312	0.9429

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
James Reimer	0.9128	221	28	0.9140	1.0000	0.8953
Ilya Sorokin	0.9245	217	44	0.9355	0.9773	0.9139
Linus Ullmark	0.9143	235	38	0.9319	0.9737	0.9160
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9105	213	38	0.8638	0.9474	0.8577
Jake Oettinger	0.9165	186	37	0.9516	0.9189	0.9441
Kaapo Kahkonen	0.9062	148	24	0.8784	0.9167	0.8833
Alex Stalock	0.9086	187	35	0.9144	0.9143	0.9044
Stuart Skinner	0.9202	134	22	0.9552	0.9091	0.9538
Jake Allen	0.9111	217	43	0.9078	0.9070	0.9004
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9189	204	43	0.9020	0.9070	0.9019
Sam Montembeault	0.8938	102	21	0.9314	0.9048	0.9225
Juuse Saros	0.9188	246	61	0.8984	0.9016	0.8975
Tristan Jarry	0.9143	251	47	0.9044	0.8298	0.9153
Spencer Knight	0.9078	99	28	0.8990	0.8214	0.9150
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9066	124	22	0.8790	0.8182	0.8924
Sergei Bobrovsky	0.9159	174	31	0.8966	0.8065	0.9044
Jack Campbell	0.9144	202	48	0.8812	0.7917	0.9019
John Gibson	0.9140	269	51	0.8885	0.7843	0.9127
Cal Petersen	0.9061	144	27	0.8681	0.7407	0.8901
Martin Jones	0.9069	174	24	0.8793	0.7083	0.9049
Thatcher Demko	0.9104	259	30	0.8764	0.6667	0.9072

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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