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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 9, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Arvid Soderblom 0.8987 132 113 0.9242 0.9646
Jake Oettinger 0.9165 186 148 0.9516 0.9595
Carter Hart 0.9078 296 243 0.9459 0.9547
Stuart Skinner 0.9152 208 171 0.9279 0.9532
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9162 321 278 0.9377 0.9460
Ville Husso 0.9159 253 210 0.9407 0.9429
Alexandar Georgiev 0.9096 279 227 0.9247 0.9427
Ilya Samsonov 0.9038 214 169 0.9206 0.9408

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
James Reimer 0.9128 290 35 0.9103 0.9714 0.8960
Ilya Sorokin 0.9246 299 45 0.9331 0.9556 0.9213
Linus Ullmark 0.9146 310 45 0.9323 0.9556 0.9194
Jake Oettinger 0.9165 186 37 0.9516 0.9189 0.9441
Kaapo Kahkonen 0.9062 148 24 0.8784 0.9167 0.8833
Ville Husso 0.9159 253 36 0.9407 0.9167 0.9308
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9100 248 47 0.8629 0.9149 0.8600
Alex Stalock 0.9086 187 35 0.9144 0.9143 0.9044
Jake Allen 0.9110 302 67 0.9073 0.9104 0.8987
Felix Sandstrom 0.9094 132 22 0.9091 0.9091 0.8982
Vitek Vanecek 0.9084 177 31 0.9153 0.9032 0.9075
Juuse Saros 0.9184 297 71 0.8923 0.9014 0.8901
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9158 252 46 0.8968 0.8261 0.9024
Ilya Samsonov 0.9038 214 39 0.9206 0.8205 0.9292
Eric Comrie 0.9016 277 38 0.8917 0.8158 0.8991
Jack Campbell 0.9140 275 62 0.8836 0.8065 0.8989
Martin Jones 0.9074 258 35 0.9070 0.8000 0.9176
Stuart Skinner 0.9152 208 30 0.9279 0.8000 0.9391
Jordan Binnington 0.9101 219 26 0.8858 0.7692 0.8970
John Gibson 0.9137 362 60 0.8867 0.7667 0.9092
Cal Petersen 0.9061 144 27 0.8681 0.7407 0.8901
Thatcher Demko 0.9103 289 34 0.8789 0.6765 0.9077
Frederik Andersen 0.9157 201 21 0.8905 0.6667 0.9118

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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