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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Skaters

November 9, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at skaters performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on shooting percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it is unlikely that a player can maintain a shooting percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers for long amounts of time (which translates to lots of shots).

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent. The last column (Dev) measures the deviation from career levels. As a fantasy hockey manager (at least one in a league that emphasizes goal scoring), you could interpret this data as a player's trade value. Today's article will include the requirements that a player has taken at least 20 shots on goal and has a deviation of at least 50% from his career numbers.

Player G A S S/GP 3YS/GP SH% CSH% DEV
Erik Karlsson 10 9 45 3.2 2.9 22.2 6.8 228
Hampus Lindholm 4 9 25 1.9 2.8 16.0 5.9 169
Valeri Nichushkin 7 5 26 3.7 2.4 26.9 10.3 161
Darnell Nurse 3 6 24 1.7 2.8 12.5 5.0 152
Nikita Zadorov 3 1 23 1.9 1.3 13.0 5.2 150
Rasmus Dahlin 7 9 47 3.9 2.1 14.9 6.3 135
Adam Larsson 2 1 20 1.4 1.4 10.0 4.3 134
Evan Rodrigues 4 2 24 2.2 3.0 16.7 7.9 112
Nick Suzuki 8 7 31 2.4 2.1 25.8 12.3 111
Lawson Crouse 6 2 26 2.2 1.9 23.1 11.0 110
Michael Stone 2 3 21 2.1 5.9 9.5 4.6 108
Alex Tuch 7 4 33 2.5 3.6 21.2 10.4 104
Shea Theodore 3 7 26 1.9 3.0 11.5 5.8 98
Sam Lafferty 3 4 21 1.8 1.9 14.3 7.4 94
Trevor Zegras 7 5 29 2.2 3.3 24.1 12.5 92
Nicholas Paul 4 4 26 2.0 2.1 15.4 8.0 91
Claude Giroux 7 4 33 2.8 2.8 21.2 11.2 89
Bo Horvat 12 4 47 3.6 2.8 25.5 13.6 88
Jared McCann 5 3 25 2.3 2.8 20.0 10.8 86
Charlie Coyle 5 2 25 1.9 1.8 20.0 10.8 85
Ryan Strome 4 6 20 1.5 2.3 20.0 10.9 84
Shayne Gostisbehere 4 6 31 2.6 2.4 12.9 7.1 81
Brandon Montour 4 8 37 3.4 2.0 10.8 6.0 79
Blake Lizotte 4 0 24 1.6 1.5 16.7 9.4 78
Victor Olofsson 9 1 38 2.9 2.6 23.7 13.4 77
J.T. Miller 7 6 27 2.1 2.4 25.9 14.6 77
Eetu Luostarinen 4 4 21 1.6 1.1 19.1 10.8 76
Clayton Keller 4 9 21 1.8 2.7 19.1 10.9 75
Nicolas Roy 4 4 20 1.4 1.7 20.0 11.5 74
Nino Niederreiter 6 2 27 2.1 2.0 22.2 12.9 73
Noah Dobson 4 6 37 2.6 2.3 10.8 6.3 71
Dylan Cozens 4 4 28 2.2 2.1 14.3 8.4 70
Joe Pavelski 6 6 28 2.2 2.4 21.4 12.7 68
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 7 9 36 2.6 3.0 19.4 11.6 67
Miro Heiskanen 2 6 22 2.2 2.5 9.1 5.4 67
Andrei Svechnikov 8 6 40 3.3 3.0 20.0 12.0 67
Taylor Hall 5 4 30 2.3 3.1 16.7 10.2 64
Connor McDavid 14 15 57 4.1 3.8 24.6 15.3 60
Brady Skjei 2 4 28 2.3 2.2 7.1 4.5 59
Nico Sturm 5 1 25 1.8 1.5 20.0 12.6 59
Arthur Kaliyev 4 5 30 2.1 2.5 13.3 8.4 58
Mark Scheifele 8 2 31 2.6 2.5 25.8 16.5 57
Anthony Mantha 4 2 21 1.5 4.0 19.1 12.2 56
Adam Fox 3 9 30 2.1 2.0 10.0 6.5 54
Dylan Larkin 6 9 39 3.0 3.4 15.4 10.0 53
Phillip Danault 4 4 26 1.7 2.0 15.4 10.0 53
Mikael Backlund 5 1 38 3.2 2.5 13.2 8.7 52
Justin Faulk 3 7 32 2.9 2.2 9.4 6.2 51
Jakob Silfverberg 3 1 21 1.8 2.7 14.3 9.5 50
Pierre Engvall 1 1 20 1.5 2.1 5.0 10.1 -50
Denis Gurianov 1 2 20 1.7 2.3 5.0 10.0 -50
Boone Jenner 2 4 42 3.5 3.0 4.8 10.0 -52
Mason Appleton 1 5 21 1.8 1.7 4.8 10.0 -52
Jimmy Vesey 1 1 20 1.5 1.6 5.0 10.6 -53
Trevor Moore 2 8 49 3.3 2.3 4.1 8.7 -53
Ryan Hartman 1 4 21 2.3 2.2 4.8 10.3 -54
Matt Nieto 1 3 25 1.8 1.6 4.0 8.8 -55
Mikael Granlund 1 9 22 1.7 1.8 4.6 10.5 -56
Patric Hornqvist 1 0 24 2.2 3.8 4.2 9.4 -56
Dillon Dube 1 3 20 1.7 1.9 5.0 11.2 -56
Sam Bennett 2 4 46 3.5 3.1 4.4 10.2 -58
Jean-Gabriel Pageau 1 6 21 1.5 1.9 4.8 11.6 -59
Jonathan Huberdeau 1 5 20 1.8 2.5 5.0 12.5 -60
Alexis Lafreniere 2 3 34 2.4 1.4 5.9 15.6 -62
Phil Kessel 1 4 25 1.8 2.1 4.0 10.7 -63
Sam Reinhart 2 3 40 3.1 2.4 5.0 13.9 -64
Kyle Okposo 1 7 27 2.1 2.4 3.7 10.3 -64
Alexander Kerfoot 1 4 22 1.6 1.4 4.6 13.2 -66
Cale Makar 1 12 31 2.8 3.1 3.2 9.9 -67
Aleksander Barkov 2 8 44 3.4 3.5 4.6 14.0 -67
Kyle Connor 2 8 42 3.5 3.5 4.8 14.9 -68
Tomas Tatar 1 7 27 2.1 2.1 3.7 12.7 -71
Alex DeBrincat 2 9 52 4.3 3.1 3.9 14.9 -74
Anton Lundell 1 7 33 2.5 2.4 3.0 12.0 -75
Oliver Bjorkstrand 1 7 48 3.4 3.2 2.1 11.5 -82
Kevin Shattenkirk 0 5 23 1.8 1.9 0.0 5.5 -100
Ivan Provorov 0 6 27 2.3 2.2 0.0 6.0 -100
Filip Hronek 0 8 27 2.1 1.9 0.0 4.4 -100
Jacob Trouba 0 4 42 3.0 2.6 0.0 4.7 -100
K'Andre Miller 0 4 26 1.9 1.3 0.0 6.3 -100
Cam Fowler 0 1 21 1.6 1.8 0.0 6.1 -100
Mathew Barzal 0 15 38 2.7 2.5 0.0 10.7 -100
MacKenzie Weegar 0 4 24 2.0 2.5 0.0 5.0 -100
Mark Giordano 0 2 20 1.4 2.6 0.0 6.9 -100
Morgan Rielly 0 10 23 1.6 2.7 0.0 4.7 -100
Seth Jones 0 4 22 2.8 2.7 0.0 4.8 -100
Dmitry Orlov 0 5 26 2.0 1.7 0.0 6.4 -100
Brett Pesce 0 3 22 1.8 2.1 0.0 4.2 -100
Colton Parayko 0 2 20 1.8 2.4 0.0 4.2 -100
Teuvo Teravainen 0 5 26 2.2 3.2 0.0 9.9 -100
Evan Bouchard 0 5 32 2.3 3.8 0.0 5.3 -100
Derek Stepan 0 1 24 2.0 2.8 0.0 9.2 -100
Kris Letang 0 7 21 1.9 2.9 0.0 5.8 -100
Alex Pietrangelo 0 10 26 1.9 3.3 0.0 5.9 -100
Jordan Harris 0 4 21 1.6 7.4 0.0 3.3 -100
Erik Haula 0 4 32 2.5 2.1 0.0 12.0 -100
Noah Hanifin 0 2 33 3.0 2.2 0.0 4.4 -100

Legend

G: Goals

A: Assists

S: Shots on goal

S/GP: Shots on goal per game

3YS/GP: Three-year average shots on goal per game

SH%: 2022-2023 shooting percentage

CSH%: Career shooting percentage

DEV: Deviation from career shooting percentage

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