Buy-Low and Sell-High: Skaters
Introduction
Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at skaters performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on shooting percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it is unlikely that a player can maintain a shooting percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers for long amounts of time (which translates to lots of shots).
The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent. The last column (Dev) measures the deviation from career levels. As a fantasy hockey manager (at least one in a league that emphasizes goal scoring), you could interpret this data as a player's trade value. Today's article will include the requirements that a player has taken at least 20 shots on goal and has a deviation of at least 50% from his career numbers.
| Player | G | A | S | S/GP | 3YS/GP | SH% | CSH% | DEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Karlsson | 10 | 9 | 45 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 22.2 | 6.8 | 228 |
| Hampus Lindholm | 4 | 9 | 25 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 16.0 | 5.9 | 169 |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 7 | 5 | 26 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 26.9 | 10.3 | 161 |
| Darnell Nurse | 3 | 6 | 24 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 12.5 | 5.0 | 152 |
| Nikita Zadorov | 3 | 1 | 23 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 150 |
| Rasmus Dahlin | 7 | 9 | 47 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 14.9 | 6.3 | 135 |
| Adam Larsson | 2 | 1 | 20 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 134 |
| Evan Rodrigues | 4 | 2 | 24 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 16.7 | 7.9 | 112 |
| Nick Suzuki | 8 | 7 | 31 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 25.8 | 12.3 | 111 |
| Lawson Crouse | 6 | 2 | 26 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 23.1 | 11.0 | 110 |
| Michael Stone | 2 | 3 | 21 | 2.1 | 5.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 108 |
| Alex Tuch | 7 | 4 | 33 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 21.2 | 10.4 | 104 |
| Shea Theodore | 3 | 7 | 26 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 98 |
| Sam Lafferty | 3 | 4 | 21 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 14.3 | 7.4 | 94 |
| Trevor Zegras | 7 | 5 | 29 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 24.1 | 12.5 | 92 |
| Nicholas Paul | 4 | 4 | 26 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 15.4 | 8.0 | 91 |
| Claude Giroux | 7 | 4 | 33 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 21.2 | 11.2 | 89 |
| Bo Horvat | 12 | 4 | 47 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 25.5 | 13.6 | 88 |
| Jared McCann | 5 | 3 | 25 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 20.0 | 10.8 | 86 |
| Charlie Coyle | 5 | 2 | 25 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 20.0 | 10.8 | 85 |
| Ryan Strome | 4 | 6 | 20 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 20.0 | 10.9 | 84 |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | 4 | 6 | 31 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 81 |
| Brandon Montour | 4 | 8 | 37 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 79 |
| Blake Lizotte | 4 | 0 | 24 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 78 |
| Victor Olofsson | 9 | 1 | 38 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 23.7 | 13.4 | 77 |
| J.T. Miller | 7 | 6 | 27 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 25.9 | 14.6 | 77 |
| Eetu Luostarinen | 4 | 4 | 21 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 19.1 | 10.8 | 76 |
| Clayton Keller | 4 | 9 | 21 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 19.1 | 10.9 | 75 |
| Nicolas Roy | 4 | 4 | 20 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 20.0 | 11.5 | 74 |
| Nino Niederreiter | 6 | 2 | 27 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 22.2 | 12.9 | 73 |
| Noah Dobson | 4 | 6 | 37 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 10.8 | 6.3 | 71 |
| Dylan Cozens | 4 | 4 | 28 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 14.3 | 8.4 | 70 |
| Joe Pavelski | 6 | 6 | 28 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 21.4 | 12.7 | 68 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 7 | 9 | 36 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 19.4 | 11.6 | 67 |
| Miro Heiskanen | 2 | 6 | 22 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 67 |
| Andrei Svechnikov | 8 | 6 | 40 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 20.0 | 12.0 | 67 |
| Taylor Hall | 5 | 4 | 30 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 16.7 | 10.2 | 64 |
| Connor McDavid | 14 | 15 | 57 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 24.6 | 15.3 | 60 |
| Brady Skjei | 2 | 4 | 28 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 59 |
| Nico Sturm | 5 | 1 | 25 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 20.0 | 12.6 | 59 |
| Arthur Kaliyev | 4 | 5 | 30 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 13.3 | 8.4 | 58 |
| Mark Scheifele | 8 | 2 | 31 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 25.8 | 16.5 | 57 |
| Anthony Mantha | 4 | 2 | 21 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 19.1 | 12.2 | 56 |
| Adam Fox | 3 | 9 | 30 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 54 |
| Dylan Larkin | 6 | 9 | 39 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 15.4 | 10.0 | 53 |
| Phillip Danault | 4 | 4 | 26 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 15.4 | 10.0 | 53 |
| Mikael Backlund | 5 | 1 | 38 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 52 |
| Justin Faulk | 3 | 7 | 32 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 51 |
| Jakob Silfverberg | 3 | 1 | 21 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 14.3 | 9.5 | 50 |
| Pierre Engvall | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 5.0 | 10.1 | -50 |
| Denis Gurianov | 1 | 2 | 20 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 10.0 | -50 |
| Boone Jenner | 2 | 4 | 42 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 10.0 | -52 |
| Mason Appleton | 1 | 5 | 21 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 4.8 | 10.0 | -52 |
| Jimmy Vesey | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 5.0 | 10.6 | -53 |
| Trevor Moore | 2 | 8 | 49 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 8.7 | -53 |
| Ryan Hartman | 1 | 4 | 21 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 10.3 | -54 |
| Matt Nieto | 1 | 3 | 25 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 4.0 | 8.8 | -55 |
| Mikael Granlund | 1 | 9 | 22 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 4.6 | 10.5 | -56 |
| Patric Hornqvist | 1 | 0 | 24 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 9.4 | -56 |
| Dillon Dube | 1 | 3 | 20 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 5.0 | 11.2 | -56 |
| Sam Bennett | 2 | 4 | 46 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 10.2 | -58 |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 1 | 6 | 21 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 4.8 | 11.6 | -59 |
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 1 | 5 | 20 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 5.0 | 12.5 | -60 |
| Alexis Lafreniere | 2 | 3 | 34 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 5.9 | 15.6 | -62 |
| Phil Kessel | 1 | 4 | 25 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 4.0 | 10.7 | -63 |
| Sam Reinhart | 2 | 3 | 40 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 5.0 | 13.9 | -64 |
| Kyle Okposo | 1 | 7 | 27 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 10.3 | -64 |
| Alexander Kerfoot | 1 | 4 | 22 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4.6 | 13.2 | -66 |
| Cale Makar | 1 | 12 | 31 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 9.9 | -67 |
| Aleksander Barkov | 2 | 8 | 44 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 14.0 | -67 |
| Kyle Connor | 2 | 8 | 42 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 14.9 | -68 |
| Tomas Tatar | 1 | 7 | 27 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 12.7 | -71 |
| Alex DeBrincat | 2 | 9 | 52 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 14.9 | -74 |
| Anton Lundell | 1 | 7 | 33 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 12.0 | -75 |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 1 | 7 | 48 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 11.5 | -82 |
| Kevin Shattenkirk | 0 | 5 | 23 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 5.5 | -100 |
| Ivan Provorov | 0 | 6 | 27 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 6.0 | -100 |
| Filip Hronek | 0 | 8 | 27 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.0 | 4.4 | -100 |
| Jacob Trouba | 0 | 4 | 42 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 4.7 | -100 |
| K'Andre Miller | 0 | 4 | 26 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.0 | 6.3 | -100 |
| Cam Fowler | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 0.0 | 6.1 | -100 |
| Mathew Barzal | 0 | 15 | 38 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 10.7 | -100 |
| MacKenzie Weegar | 0 | 4 | 24 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 0.0 | 5.0 | -100 |
| Mark Giordano | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 6.9 | -100 |
| Morgan Rielly | 0 | 10 | 23 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 4.7 | -100 |
| Seth Jones | 0 | 4 | 22 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 0.0 | 4.8 | -100 |
| Dmitry Orlov | 0 | 5 | 26 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 6.4 | -100 |
| Brett Pesce | 0 | 3 | 22 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 4.2 | -100 |
| Colton Parayko | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 0.0 | 4.2 | -100 |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 0 | 5 | 26 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 9.9 | -100 |
| Evan Bouchard | 0 | 5 | 32 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 5.3 | -100 |
| Derek Stepan | 0 | 1 | 24 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 0.0 | 9.2 | -100 |
| Kris Letang | 0 | 7 | 21 | 1.9 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 5.8 | -100 |
| Alex Pietrangelo | 0 | 10 | 26 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 5.9 | -100 |
| Jordan Harris | 0 | 4 | 21 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 0.0 | 3.3 | -100 |
| Erik Haula | 0 | 4 | 32 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 12.0 | -100 |
| Noah Hanifin | 0 | 2 | 33 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 4.4 | -100 |
Legend
G: Goals
A: Assists
S: Shots on goal
S/GP: Shots on goal per game
3YS/GP: Three-year average shots on goal per game
SH%: 2022-2023 shooting percentage
CSH%: Career shooting percentage
DEV: Deviation from career shooting percentage
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