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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 16, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Arvid Soderblom 0.9067 173 150 0.9306 0.9600
Stuart Skinner 0.9176 250 204 0.9320 0.9559
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9162 356 308 0.9354 0.9448
Alexandar Georgiev 0.9098 353 294 0.9235 0.9422
Ilya Samsonov 0.9038 214 169 0.9206 0.9408
Carter Hart 0.9071 382 316 0.9293 0.9399
Spencer Knight 0.9110 205 148 0.9220 0.9392

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
James Reimer 0.9127 375 40 0.9093 0.9750 0.8981
Linus Ullmark 0.9151 373 59 0.9357 0.9322 0.9254
Connor Ingram 0.8734 138 26 0.8696 0.9231 0.8602
Ilya Sorokin 0.9246 355 51 0.9324 0.9216 0.9252
Juuse Saros 0.9189 365 87 0.9068 0.9195 0.9004
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9099 265 49 0.8642 0.9184 0.8602
Alex Stalock 0.9086 187 35 0.9144 0.9143 0.9044
Jake Oettinger 0.9151 280 58 0.9286 0.9138 0.9218
Jaroslav Halak 0.9155 137 21 0.8832 0.9048 0.8758
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9186 334 73 0.8982 0.9041 0.9015
Kevin Lankinen 0.9025 152 30 0.9211 0.9000 0.9145
Sam Montembeault 0.8950 171 30 0.9298 0.9000 0.9228
Martin Jones 0.9074 309 51 0.9094 0.8235 0.9183
Alexandar Georgiev 0.9098 353 56 0.9235 0.8214 0.9303
Ilya Samsonov 0.9038 214 39 0.9206 0.8205 0.9292
Craig Anderson 0.9121 186 33 0.9086 0.8182 0.9175
Stuart Skinner 0.9176 250 38 0.9320 0.8158 0.9412
Brian Elliott 0.9102 156 27 0.8910 0.8148 0.9067
Eric Comrie 0.8993 312 41 0.8846 0.8049 0.8932
Jack Campbell 0.9130 307 64 0.8730 0.7969 0.8881
Jordan Binnington 0.9108 332 33 0.9036 0.7879 0.9115
Spencer Martin 0.9135 206 26 0.8981 0.7692 0.9080
John Gibson 0.9137 434 71 0.8917 0.7606 0.9140
Erik Kallgren 0.8898 196 22 0.8929 0.7273 0.9111
Cal Petersen 0.9058 165 32 0.8667 0.7188 0.8947
Thatcher Demko 0.9095 350 45 0.8743 0.6889 0.9026
Frederik Andersen 0.9157 201 21 0.8905 0.6667 0.9118

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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