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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Skaters

November 16, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at skaters performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on shooting percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it is unlikely that a player can maintain a shooting percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers for long amounts of time (which translates to lots of shots).

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent. The last column (Dev) measures the deviation from career levels. As a fantasy hockey manager (at least one in a league that emphasizes goal scoring), you could interpret this data as a player's trade value. Today's article will include the requirements that a player has taken at least 20 shots on goal and has a deviation of at least 50% from his career numbers.

Player G A S S/GP 3YS/GP SH% CSH% DEV
Scott Mayfield 4 2 26 1.5 1.6 15.4 4.6 231
Erik Karlsson 10 14 55 3.1 2.9 18.2 6.7 169
Nick Ritchie 6 3 22 1.5 2.3 27.3 10.5 161
Valeri Nichushkin 7 5 26 3.7 2.4 26.9 10.3 161
Logan O'Connor 5 1 22 1.6 2.1 22.7 8.9 155
Brett Ritchie 4 2 20 1.3 2.6 20.0 7.9 152
Mikhail Sergachev 4 11 29 1.8 1.9 13.8 5.9 133
Nicholas Paul 6 5 32 2.0 2.1 18.8 8.4 125
Nick Suzuki 10 9 37 2.3 2.1 27.0 12.5 116
Ryan Graves 3 4 24 1.5 1.8 12.5 5.8 115
Darnell Nurse 3 6 29 1.8 2.8 10.3 4.9 109
Jeff Petry 3 4 24 1.5 2.2 12.5 6.0 108
Michael Stone 2 3 21 2.1 5.9 9.5 4.6 108
Adam Fox 5 14 35 2.1 2.0 14.3 6.9 107
Hampus Lindholm 4 13 33 2.1 2.8 12.1 5.9 106
Nikita Zadorov 3 1 29 1.9 1.3 10.3 5.2 100
Adam Larsson 2 1 24 1.5 1.4 8.3 4.2 96
Ryan Johansen 5 5 22 1.4 1.6 22.7 11.9 92
Alex Tuch 8 6 40 2.5 3.6 20.0 10.4 92
Joe Pavelski 9 10 37 2.3 2.4 24.3 12.8 90
Tyson Barrie 3 9 25 1.6 2.4 12.0 6.3 90
Clayton Keller 6 11 29 1.9 2.7 20.7 11.0 88
Rasmus Dahlin 7 11 60 4.0 2.1 11.7 6.2 88
Andrei Svechnikov 12 6 52 3.3 3.0 23.1 12.3 87
Kirby Dach 4 10 25 1.6 2.5 16.0 8.6 86
Claude Giroux 8 9 39 2.6 2.8 20.5 11.2 82
Barclay Goodrow 4 4 24 1.4 1.4 16.7 9.2 81
Alex Killorn 5 8 23 1.4 2.0 21.7 12.0 81
John Marino 2 6 21 1.3 1.2 9.5 5.3 81
Jordan Martinook 4 5 27 1.7 1.7 14.8 8.2 80
Sam Lafferty 3 4 23 1.5 1.9 13.0 7.3 79
Jared McCann 5 3 26 2.0 2.8 19.2 10.8 79
Lawson Crouse 6 2 31 2.1 1.9 19.4 10.9 78
David Kampf 3 4 22 1.3 1.2 13.6 7.8 74
J.T. Miller 10 6 39 2.3 2.4 25.6 14.7 74
Charlie Coyle 5 3 27 1.7 1.8 18.5 10.8 71
Arthur Kaliyev 6 7 39 2.3 2.5 15.4 9.0 71
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 8 9 40 2.5 3.0 20.0 11.7 71
Evan Rodrigues 5 2 38 2.7 3.0 13.2 7.8 68
Esa Lindell 2 5 23 1.4 1.7 8.7 5.2 66
Nino Niederreiter 7 2 33 2.1 2.0 21.2 12.9 64
Ryan Strome 5 6 28 1.8 2.3 17.9 10.9 64
Shayne Gostisbehere 4 6 35 2.3 2.4 11.4 7.1 61
Bo Horvat 14 6 64 3.8 2.8 21.9 13.5 61
Phillip Danault 5 7 31 1.7 2.0 16.1 10.1 60
Mark Scheifele 10 2 38 2.7 2.5 26.3 16.5 59
Taylor Raddysh 4 3 21 1.4 1.6 19.1 12.0 59
Brock McGinn 4 3 25 1.6 1.8 16.0 10.2 57
Logan Couture 7 6 35 1.9 2.8 20.0 12.7 57
Noah Dobson 5 7 50 2.9 2.3 10.0 6.4 57
Jani Hakanpaa 2 1 21 1.3 0.9 9.5 6.1 55
Trevor Zegras 7 8 37 2.3 3.3 18.9 12.2 55
Thomas Chabot 3 3 34 2.4 3.1 8.8 5.7 55
Blake Lizotte 4 1 28 1.6 1.5 14.3 9.2 55
Connor McDavid 15 17 64 4.0 3.8 23.4 15.3 53
Tony DeAngelo 3 6 31 1.9 3.4 9.7 6.3 53
Nicolas Roy 4 6 23 1.4 1.7 17.4 11.4 53
Nico Sturm 6 2 31 1.7 1.5 19.4 12.7 53
Torey Krug 2 4 26 1.9 2.5 7.7 5.0 53
Oliver Wahlstrom 5 4 32 2.0 2.5 15.6 10.3 52
Victor Olofsson 9 1 45 2.8 2.6 20.0 13.2 52
Josh Anderson 4 2 23 1.6 3.3 17.4 11.4 52
Zack MacEwen 3 2 26 1.9 1.3 11.5 7.6 52
Trevor Lewis 3 2 33 2.2 1.5 9.1 6.0 52
Brandon Montour 4 12 44 3.1 2.0 9.1 6.0 52
Eetu Luostarinen 4 4 25 1.6 1.1 16.0 10.5 52
Dylan Cozens 4 7 32 2.0 2.1 12.5 8.3 51
Jordan Staal 4 3 23 1.4 1.9 17.4 11.5 51
Max Domi 4 6 26 1.7 2.0 15.4 10.2 50
Jack Eichel 10 10 62 3.6 5.7 16.1 10.7 50
Ryan Donato 1 2 21 1.6 2.2 4.8 9.6 -50
Denis Gurianov 1 2 20 1.7 2.3 5.0 10.0 -50
Aleksander Barkov 4 10 58 3.6 3.5 6.9 14.0 -51
Drew Doughty 1 9 34 1.9 2.7 2.9 6.1 -51
Jesperi Kotkaniemi 1 2 23 1.4 1.9 4.4 9.2 -53
Blake Coleman 1 4 23 1.5 2.7 4.4 9.3 -53
Andrew Cogliano 1 2 22 1.6 1.3 4.6 9.7 -53
Ryan Hartman 1 4 21 2.3 2.2 4.8 10.3 -54
Patrik Laine 2 2 29 3.6 3.4 6.9 14.9 -54
Alexander Barabanov 1 9 24 1.7 2.0 4.2 9.3 -55
Yakov Trenin 1 3 22 1.5 1.8 4.6 10.2 -55
Corey Perry 2 3 35 2.2 1.7 5.7 12.7 -55
Ivan Barbashev 2 3 24 1.7 1.4 8.3 18.5 -55
Ivan Provorov 1 7 37 2.3 2.2 2.7 6.0 -55
Mason Appleton 1 5 23 1.6 1.7 4.4 9.9 -56
Patrick Kane 2 10 39 2.6 3.7 5.1 11.6 -56
Oliver Ekman-Larsson 1 6 33 1.9 2.2 3.0 6.9 -56
Yanni Gourde 2 7 31 2.1 1.8 6.5 15.1 -57
Victor Hedman 1 8 33 2.4 2.6 3.0 7.0 -57
Alex Pietrangelo 1 13 39 2.3 3.3 2.6 5.9 -57
Sam Reinhart 3 3 51 3.2 2.4 5.9 13.9 -58
Trevor Moore 2 10 55 3.1 2.3 3.6 8.6 -58
Nick Bjugstad 1 3 27 1.8 2.8 3.7 8.8 -58
Cole Sillinger 1 3 25 1.7 1.9 4.0 9.8 -59
Patric Hornqvist 1 1 27 2.1 3.8 3.7 9.4 -61
Dillon Dube 1 3 23 1.5 1.9 4.4 11.1 -61
Evgeny Kuznetsov 2 11 46 2.7 2.6 4.4 11.5 -62
Mikael Granlund 1 11 26 1.6 1.8 3.9 10.4 -63
Alexis Lafreniere 2 5 36 2.1 1.4 5.6 15.5 -64
Jack Roslovic 1 5 22 1.6 1.7 4.6 13.0 -65
Kyle Okposo 1 8 29 2.1 2.4 3.5 10.3 -66
Kyle Connor 2 10 48 3.4 3.5 4.2 14.8 -72
Alexander Kerfoot 1 5 29 1.7 1.4 3.5 13.0 -74
Anton Lundell 1 8 37 2.3 2.4 2.7 11.7 -77
Oliver Bjorkstrand 1 8 52 3.3 3.2 1.9 11.5 -83
Oskar Lindblom 0 4 20 1.2 2.1 0.0 10.5 -100
Mark Giordano 0 3 21 1.2 2.6 0.0 6.9 -100
Dmitry Orlov 0 5 26 2.0 1.7 0.0 6.4 -100
Evan Bouchard 0 5 36 2.3 3.8 0.0 5.2 -100
Nick Leddy 0 3 21 1.5 1.3 0.0 5.6 -100
Brock Boeser 0 9 26 2.4 3.1 0.0 12.8 -100
Calen Addison 0 8 21 1.3 6.2 0.0 4.8 -100
Cam Fowler 0 3 28 1.8 1.8 0.0 6.1 -100
Colton Parayko 0 3 26 1.9 2.4 0.0 4.2 -100
Barrett Hayton 0 3 25 1.7 2.3 0.0 9.0 -100
MacKenzie Weegar 0 4 29 1.9 2.5 0.0 4.9 -100
Derek Stepan 0 1 29 1.9 2.8 0.0 9.2 -100
Teuvo Teravainen 0 7 32 2.3 3.2 0.0 9.9 -100
Seth Jones 0 4 22 2.8 2.7 0.0 4.8 -100
Owen Power 0 8 21 1.3 12.9 0.0 6.5 -100
Erik Haula 0 5 37 2.3 2.1 0.0 12.0 -100
Jonas Brodin 0 2 24 1.5 1.7 0.0 5.0 -100
Morgan Rielly 0 14 28 1.6 2.7 0.0 4.7 -100
Brett Pesce 0 3 27 1.7 2.1 0.0 4.1 -100
K'Andre Miller 0 4 27 1.6 1.3 0.0 6.3 -100
Mathew Barzal 0 18 44 2.6 2.5 0.0 10.6 -100
Jordan Harris 0 4 23 1.4 7.4 0.0 3.1 -100
Quinn Hughes 0 14 23 1.8 1.9 0.0 4.7 -100
Erik Johnson 0 3 25 1.8 2.6 0.0 4.9 -100
Kevin Shattenkirk 0 5 25 1.8 1.9 0.0 5.5 -100
Vladislav Namestnikov 0 4 22 1.4 1.5 0.0 12.7 -100
Jacob Trouba 0 4 52 3.1 2.6 0.0 4.6 -100
Kris Letang 0 8 31 2.1 2.9 0.0 5.8 -100

Legend

G: Goals

A: Assists

S: Shots on goal

S/GP: Shots on goal per game

3YS/GP: Three-year average shots on goal per game

SH%: 2022-2023 shooting percentage

CSH%: Career shooting percentage

DEV: Deviation from career shooting percentage

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