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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 30, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Linus Ullmark 0.9154 461 368 0.9349 0.9429
Ilya Sorokin 0.9253 525 435 0.9333 0.9425
Ilya Samsonov 0.9038 214 169 0.9206 0.9408
Alexandar Georgiev 0.9105 474 384 0.9262 0.9401
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9163 563 479 0.9307 0.9395

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
James Reimer 0.9125 465 51 0.9032 0.9608 0.8932
Pyotr Kochetkov 0.9130 192 37 0.9167 0.9459 0.9024
Matt Murray 0.9117 234 45 0.9274 0.9333 0.9150
Sam Montembeault 0.8958 262 49 0.9237 0.9184 0.9138
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9099 265 49 0.8642 0.9184 0.8602
Alex Stalock 0.9086 187 35 0.9144 0.9143 0.9044
Casey DeSmith 0.9147 295 45 0.9085 0.9111 0.8983
Thomas Greiss 0.9120 217 22 0.9032 0.9091 0.9031
Ville Husso 0.9121 432 66 0.9120 0.9091 0.9067
Jaroslav Halak 0.9154 159 22 0.8805 0.9091 0.8729
Jake Oettinger 0.9140 424 84 0.9175 0.9048 0.9111
Kaapo Kahkonen 0.9051 292 41 0.8836 0.9024 0.8860
Brian Elliott 0.9101 193 29 0.8860 0.8276 0.8966
Ilya Samsonov 0.9038 214 39 0.9206 0.8205 0.9292
Logan Thompson 0.9173 493 66 0.9209 0.8182 0.9254
Jack Campbell 0.9127 361 72 0.8753 0.8056 0.8906
Petr Mrazek 0.9082 271 48 0.8782 0.7917 0.8914
Eric Comrie 0.8997 336 43 0.8869 0.7907 0.8960
Jordan Binnington 0.9102 500 62 0.9000 0.7903 0.9098
Martin Jones 0.9068 458 75 0.8930 0.7733 0.9114
John Gibson 0.9135 624 89 0.8942 0.7640 0.9114
Erik Kallgren 0.8922 246 25 0.8984 0.7600 0.9102
Jeremy Swayman 0.9179 164 23 0.9024 0.7391 0.9232
Arvid Soderblom 0.8971 255 22 0.9098 0.7273 0.9225
Alex Nedeljkovic 0.9068 217 21 0.8802 0.7143 0.9012
Thatcher Demko 0.9098 461 51 0.8850 0.7059 0.9055
Cal Petersen 0.9046 257 36 0.8677 0.6944 0.8910
Frederik Andersen 0.9157 201 21 0.8905 0.6667 0.9118

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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