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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

December 7, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Linus Ullmark 0.9156 486 391 0.9362 0.9437
Kevin Lankinen 0.9044 229 175 0.9345 0.9429
Ilya Samsonov 0.9043 238 191 0.9244 0.9424
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9165 634 533 0.9322 0.9400

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
James Reimer 0.9125 465 51 0.9032 0.9608 0.8932
Pyotr Kochetkov 0.9113 266 46 0.9135 0.9348 0.9025
Matt Murray 0.9121 311 69 0.9325 0.9275 0.9211
Alex Stalock 0.9086 187 35 0.9144 0.9143 0.9044
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9097 299 57 0.8662 0.9123 0.8629
Casey DeSmith 0.9147 295 45 0.9085 0.9111 0.8983
Jake Oettinger 0.9138 499 101 0.9158 0.9109 0.9096
Craig Anderson 0.9122 321 65 0.9159 0.9077 0.9088
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9126 448 81 0.8951 0.9012 0.8892
Sam Montembeault 0.8940 294 50 0.9082 0.9000 0.9017
Semyon Varlamov 0.9161 282 50 0.9220 0.9000 0.9156
Brian Elliott 0.9101 193 29 0.8860 0.8276 0.8966
Spencer Martin 0.9070 342 52 0.8918 0.8269 0.8969
Filip Gustavsson 0.9058 265 40 0.9094 0.8250 0.9153
Jacob Markstrom 0.9109 441 68 0.8889 0.8235 0.8962
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9153 367 68 0.8801 0.8235 0.8918
Anthony Stolarz 0.9110 308 51 0.8864 0.8235 0.8963
Ilya Samsonov 0.9043 238 39 0.9244 0.8205 0.9305
Petr Mrazek 0.9084 293 53 0.8840 0.7925 0.8976
Eric Comrie 0.8997 336 43 0.8869 0.7907 0.8960
Jack Campbell 0.9121 391 76 0.8721 0.7895 0.8898
Jeremy Swayman 0.9172 188 28 0.8989 0.7857 0.9142
Martin Jones 0.9066 474 77 0.8882 0.7792 0.9054
Jordan Binnington 0.9088 575 72 0.8887 0.7778 0.9020
John Gibson 0.9135 710 95 0.8972 0.7684 0.9118
Erik Kallgren 0.8922 246 25 0.8984 0.7600 0.9102
Alex Nedeljkovic 0.9065 251 26 0.8805 0.7308 0.9018
Philipp Grubauer 0.9130 159 33 0.8679 0.7273 0.9062
Thatcher Demko 0.9095 479 53 0.8831 0.7170 0.9025
Cal Petersen 0.9046 257 36 0.8677 0.6944 0.8910
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 0.9003 146 32 0.8630 0.6875 0.9058
Frederik Andersen 0.9157 201 21 0.8905 0.6667 0.9118

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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