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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

December 21, 2022   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Akira Schmid 0.8951 191 155 0.9319 0.9484
Linus Ullmark 0.9163 635 520 0.9370 0.9442
Ilya Samsonov 0.9055 323 263 0.9288 0.9392
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9164 781 657 0.9283 0.9391

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Pyotr Kochetkov 0.9244 389 66 0.9280 0.9394 0.9160
James Reimer 0.9124 566 65 0.9028 0.9385 0.8945
Casey DeSmith 0.9152 362 53 0.9144 0.9245 0.9031
David Rittich 0.9051 219 24 0.9087 0.9167 0.8962
Jake Oettinger 0.9154 655 117 0.9221 0.9145 0.9150
Alex Stalock 0.9086 187 35 0.9144 0.9143 0.9044
Matt Murray 0.9119 375 76 0.9253 0.9079 0.9174
Craig Anderson 0.9123 425 97 0.9224 0.9072 0.9164
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9083 403 73 0.8635 0.9041 0.8599
Ilya Sorokin 0.9240 677 104 0.9261 0.9038 0.9222
Anthony Stolarz 0.9108 316 52 0.8861 0.8269 0.8954
Antti Raanta 0.9176 248 63 0.8911 0.8254 0.8995
Akira Schmid 0.8951 191 28 0.9319 0.8214 0.9352
Jeremy Swayman 0.9160 237 44 0.8945 0.8182 0.9074
Jordan Binnington 0.9095 692 97 0.8974 0.8144 0.9062
Lukas Dostal 0.9022 168 31 0.8988 0.8065 0.9109
Alex Nedeljkovic 0.9061 292 36 0.8801 0.8056 0.8943
Jack Campbell 0.9118 458 87 0.8755 0.8046 0.8900
Martin Jones 0.9065 533 92 0.8893 0.8043 0.9025
Arvid Soderblom 0.8887 453 50 0.8940 0.8000 0.9046
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 0.9044 285 54 0.8912 0.7963 0.9058
John Gibson 0.9134 756 111 0.8955 0.7928 0.9086
Eric Comrie 0.8997 336 43 0.8869 0.7907 0.8960
Spencer Martin 0.9000 506 70 0.8854 0.7857 0.8989
Petr Mrazek 0.9077 344 58 0.8721 0.7759 0.8874
Erik Kallgren 0.8922 246 25 0.8984 0.7600 0.9102
Philipp Grubauer 0.9129 271 48 0.8819 0.7292 0.9111
Thatcher Demko 0.9095 479 53 0.8831 0.7170 0.9025
Cal Petersen 0.9046 257 36 0.8677 0.6944 0.8910
Frederik Andersen 0.9157 201 21 0.8905 0.6667 0.9118

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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