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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 4, 2023   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Akira Schmid 0.8951 191 155 0.9319 0.9484
Linus Ullmark 0.9169 733 614 0.9386 0.9463

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
James Reimer 0.9120 647 79 0.8964 0.9241 0.8905
David Rittich 0.9050 245 26 0.9061 0.9231 0.8935
Pyotr Kochetkov 0.9208 419 71 0.9236 0.9155 0.9152
Casey DeSmith 0.9148 429 68 0.9114 0.9118 0.9024
Cam Talbot 0.9146 616 106 0.9107 0.9057 0.9031
Vitek Vanecek 0.9084 560 105 0.9107 0.9048 0.9055
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9083 403 73 0.8635 0.9041 0.8599
Jake Oettinger 0.9154 830 135 0.9205 0.9037 0.9157
Ilya Sorokin 0.9240 835 134 0.9257 0.9030 0.9210
Alex Stalock 0.9089 309 60 0.9159 0.9000 0.9124
Alexandar Georgiev 0.9096 843 129 0.9146 0.8295 0.9192
Anthony Stolarz 0.9108 316 52 0.8861 0.8269 0.8954
Akira Schmid 0.8951 191 28 0.9319 0.8214 0.9352
John Gibson 0.9133 883 133 0.8969 0.8195 0.9072
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 0.9042 388 70 0.8943 0.8143 0.9043
Jordan Binnington 0.9084 839 110 0.8927 0.8091 0.9019
Alex Nedeljkovic 0.9061 292 36 0.8801 0.8056 0.8943
Jack Campbell 0.9118 478 92 0.8766 0.8043 0.8911
Martin Jones 0.9064 648 107 0.8904 0.8037 0.9025
Arvid Soderblom 0.8887 453 50 0.8940 0.8000 0.9046
Petr Mrazek 0.9075 458 70 0.8777 0.8000 0.8877
Spencer Martin 0.8968 626 84 0.8834 0.7976 0.8959
Eric Comrie 0.8997 336 43 0.8869 0.7907 0.8960
Erik Kallgren 0.8922 246 25 0.8984 0.7600 0.9102
Philipp Grubauer 0.9126 320 62 0.8813 0.7581 0.9073
Thatcher Demko 0.9095 479 53 0.8831 0.7170 0.9025
Cal Petersen 0.9046 257 36 0.8677 0.6944 0.8910
Frederik Andersen 0.9157 201 21 0.8905 0.6667 0.9118

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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