Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 25, 2023 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Linus Ullmark	0.9173	857	720	0.9382	0.9444

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
James Reimer	0.9118	847	99	0.8961	0.9192	0.8908
Pyotr Kochetkov	0.9122	497	81	0.9135	0.9136	0.9055
Ilya Sorokin	0.9229	1101	168	0.9219	0.9107	0.9171
Jake Oettinger	0.9173	1029	161	0.9252	0.9068	0.9193
Cam Talbot	0.9141	754	136	0.9032	0.9044	0.8954
Thomas Greiss	0.9122	456	50	0.9123	0.9000	0.9092
Jack Campbell	0.9119	654	118	0.8869	0.8305	0.8955
Jordan Binnington	0.9074	1062	141	0.8908	0.8298	0.8975
Samuel Ersson	0.9185	184	29	0.9185	0.8276	0.9218
Brian Elliott	0.9102	380	52	0.9026	0.8269	0.9110
John Gibson	0.9127	1138	161	0.8946	0.8261	0.9025
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9066	327	46	0.8960	0.8261	0.9052
Collin Delia	0.9022	257	39	0.8949	0.8205	0.8997
Frederik Andersen	0.9159	321	48	0.9097	0.8125	0.9185
Martin Jones	0.9064	836	130	0.8935	0.8077	0.9058
Akira Schmid	0.8885	209	31	0.9187	0.8065	0.9239
Alex Nedeljkovic	0.9061	292	36	0.8801	0.8056	0.8943
Arvid Soderblom	0.8887	453	50	0.8940	0.8000	0.9046
Philipp Grubauer	0.9129	411	79	0.8929	0.7975	0.9105
Spencer Martin	0.8909	749	102	0.8772	0.7843	0.8923
Eric Comrie	0.8981	358	44	0.8827	0.7727	0.8937
Erik Kallgren	0.8922	246	25	0.8984	0.7600	0.9102
Alex Lyon	0.8902	131	22	0.8702	0.7273	0.8912
Thatcher Demko	0.9095	479	53	0.8831	0.7170	0.9025
Cal Petersen	0.9046	257	36	0.8677	0.6944	0.8910

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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