Trade Deadline Suggestions

Introduction

The default trade deadline in the Yahoo fantasy hockey system is just days away on February 22, while many customized leagues see their trade deadlines in the coming weeks. If you're in the running for the playoffs (or have a chance to win your league in a non-playoff format), one or two smart moves this week can mean the difference between a trophy and second place.

There are two types of players you should focus on trading: (1) those with high goal totals due to extremely high individual shooting percentages and (2) those with multiple luck metrics indicating that their point production has been boosted by luck. We detail both types of trade below with specific suggestions on which players to move out and which players to target in return.

High Shooting Percentage

The nature of this trade is easy to understand; you want to identify players on your roster with goal production that has been significantly boosted by luck due to a high shooting percentage and replace them with players who should outscore them in the final weeks of the season. The key to this type of trade is to make sure you're not giving up shots on goal in the exchange (even in leagues that do not count this statistical category). Shots not only lead to goals and assists (via rebounds and deflections), they also serve as inertia to swings in shooting percentage.

Below, you'll find a list of players with goal scoring that has been boosted significantly by luck this season. In each case, potential trade targets are suggested. The targets are chosen based on statistical similarities between the two players. In particular, the targets must shoot the puck at the same or greater rate as the player being traded, must produce on the power play at the same or greater rate as the player being traded, and must be on pace for point production in between the current pace and the adjusted pace of the player being traded. If the trade targets for a particular player seem unreasonable, then this player likely cannot be traded for a return that would benefit your lineup. A link to each player's profile page (with detailed statistics) is provided.

Jared McCann - The Seattle Kraken forward has a shooting percentage of 23.4% and takes just 2.09 shots per game. He's on pace for 62 points (prior to Monday's game) which falls to 46 points when adjusted for luck. We first suggested trading McCann about six weeks ago just before he entered a goal-scoring drought. That drought has brought down his value but he remains a player you should move on from ahead of your trade deadline. Potential trade targets (with point pace shown): Patrice Bergeron (61), Nazem Kadri (60), Chris Kreider (60), Jonathan Marchessault (59), Rickard Rakell (58), Matt Boldy (57), Anders Lee (56), Dominik Kubalik (55), and David Perron (52).

Filip Chytil - The New York Rangers forward has 13 points in his last 13 games (entering Monday's game) but is riding a 17.6% shooting percentage on a low shot volume of 2.25 shots per game. He's on pace for 60 points which falls to 48 points when adjusted for luck. Potential trade targets (with point pace shown): Jonathan Marchessault (59), Rickard Rakell (58), Boone Jenner (57), Matt Boldy (57), Reilly Smith (56), Anders Lee (56), Dominik Kubalik (55), David Perron (52), Jason Zucker (51), Teuvo Teravainen (51), Tyler Seguin (50), and Bryan Rust (49).

Bo Horvat - The New York Islanders forward boasts a career-high 34 goals (in 56 games heading into Monday night). This production has been inflated by a shooting percentage of 20.7% on a strong shot volume of 2.9 shots per game. He's on pace for 85 points which falls to 70 points when adjusted for luck. Trading Horvat is tricky (especially due to his power point production); in our own league, we moved him in a four-player deal (Horvat/Seider for Barkov/Chychrun) on January 8. Potential trade targets (with point pace shown): John Tavares (81) and Alex DeBrincat (72). If your league counts face-off wins, then Tavares is clearly the only reasonable target here.

Luck Metrics

The nature of this trade is a bit more complicated than that of the high shooting percentage concept. In this particular style of trade, instead of using a single, extreme statistical deviation that leads to high goal output, you use several indicators of luck to find players who are outperforming their career norms in overall point production. Some of these indicators of luck include: secondary assist rate, tEVSH%, SH%, and IPP. All of these concepts are explained in the on-site glossary. For a detailed example of how we used these same factors to correctly predict Jeff Skinner's incredible cold spell earlier this season, read this article.

Below, you'll find a list of players with point production that has been boosted significantly by luck this season. The necessary (but not sufficient) requirements to make the list include possessing at least three of the following traits: (1) a secondary assist rate that is at least 30% higher than the player's career average; (2) a tEVSH% that is at least 10% higher than the player's career average; (3) a SH% that is at least 20% higher than the player's career average; and (4) an IPP higher than the player's career average. In each case, potential trade targets are suggested. The targets are chosen based on statistical similarities between the two players. In particular, the targets must shoot the puck at the same or greater rate as the player being traded, must produce on the power play at the same or greater rate as the player being traded, and must be on pace for point production in between the current pace and the adjusted pace of the player being traded. If the trade targets for a particular player seem unreasonable, then this player likely cannot be traded for a return that would benefit your lineup. A link to each player's profile page (with detailed statistics) is provided.

For each player in this section, we'll list the luck metrics in the following format: [2A/60, tEVSH%, SH%, IPP] -- in the same order as seen on each player's regression meter at their profile page.

Erik Karlsson [0.67, 11.5%, 12.5%, 65%] - The San Jose defender entered Monday's game with 74 points in 57 games (on pace for 106 points). He won't see those 106 points because every luck metric we use to analyze players has been aligned in Karlsson's favor. This won't last and you should expect Karlsson's production rate to drop as the season plays out. His secondary assist rate is 40% higher than his career average; his tEVSH% is 45% higher than his career average; his SH% is 80% higher than his career average; and his IPP is 20% higher than his career average. An NHL team is going to overpay for Karlsson in the coming week; it's your job to find a fantasy team to overpay for him now. Potential trade targets (with point pace shown): Cale Makar (80).

Blake Wheeler [0.58, 9.5%, 17.9%, 77%] - The Winnipeg forward has 42 points in 47 games (on pace for 73 points). His secondary assist rate is 66% higher than his career average; his tEVSH% is 11% higher than his career average; his SH% is 63% higher than his career average; and his IPP is nearly identical to his career average. Potential trade targets (with point pace shown): Alex DeBrincat (72), Drake Batherson (70), Andrei Svechnikov (69), Filip Forsberg (69), Patrick Kane (65), and Sam Reinhart (63)

Vince Dunn [0.61, 12.1%, 9.1%, 37%] - The Seattle defender entered Monday's game with 40 points in 56 games (on pace for 59 points). His secondary assist rate is 53% higher than his career average; his tEVSH% is 53% higher than his career average; his SH% is 36% higher than his career average; and his IPP is nearly identical to his career average. Potential trade targets (with point pace shown): Morgan Rielly (55), Drew Doughty (54), Thomas Chabot (51), Tony DeAngelo (49), and Aaron Ekblad (46).

Alex Killorn [0.60, 11.4%, 15.4%, 74%] - The Tampa Bay forward has 39 points in 55 games (on pace for 58 points). His secondary assist rate is 36% higher than his career average; his tEVSH% is 25% higher than his career average; his SH% is 27% higher than his career average; and his IPP is 15% higher than his career average. Potential trade targets (with point pace shown): Matt Boldy (57), Reilly Smith (56), Anders Lee (56), Dominik Kubalik (55), David Perron (52), Jason Zucker (51), Teuvo Teravainen (51), Tyler Seguin (50), and Bryan Rust (49).

Final Thoughts

The trade deadline in fantasy hockey can be won by nibbling around the edges. You don't need a blockbuster deal with six players; you don't need to land a star player; you simply need to make a smart trade that has you walking away with the better player. If you own any of the players above that have been identified as lucky, you need to do your best to strike a winning deal to move them in the coming days. Don't get caught holding the bag as nearly every player listed above is going to regress significantly over the final 25 or games.

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