Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

February 22, 2023 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Linus Ullmark	0.9178	1052	892	0.9373	0.9439

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Kevin Mandolese	0.9375	80	24	0.9375	0.9583	0.9194
Mads Sogaard	0.9051	104	21	0.9135	0.9524	0.9066
Magnus Hellberg	0.8997	248	37	0.9073	0.9189	0.9032
James Reimer	0.9118	909	107	0.8977	0.9159	0.8924
Pyotr Kochetkov	0.9122	497	81	0.9135	0.9136	0.9055
Filip Gustavsson	0.9157	738	122	0.9282	0.9098	0.9207
Ilya Sorokin	0.9236	1314	203	0.9239	0.9064	0.9192
Cam Talbot	0.9141	768	138	0.9049	0.9058	0.8970
Jake Oettinger	0.9182	1224	182	0.9265	0.9011	0.9217
Carter Hart	0.9061	1299	158	0.9092	0.8291	0.9119
Jack Campbell	0.9108	846	152	0.8865	0.8289	0.8964
Samuel Ersson	0.9130	230	35	0.9130	0.8286	0.9160
Martin Jones	0.9059	971	150	0.8898	0.8200	0.9006
Spencer Knight	0.9057	627	111	0.9011	0.8198	0.9108
Akira Schmid	0.8885	209	31	0.9187	0.8065	0.9239
Alex Nedeljkovic	0.9061	292	36	0.8801	0.8056	0.8943
Brian Elliott	0.9102	428	56	0.9042	0.8036	0.9140
Arvid Soderblom	0.8887	453	50	0.8940	0.8000	0.9046
Philipp Grubauer	0.9130	562	95	0.9004	0.8000	0.9158
Collin Delia	0.8962	395	63	0.8759	0.7778	0.8894
Spencer Martin	0.8855	830	115	0.8711	0.7739	0.8877
Eric Comrie	0.8976	401	46	0.8828	0.7609	0.8935
Erik Kallgren	0.8922	246	25	0.8984	0.7600	0.9102
Thatcher Demko	0.9095	479	53	0.8831	0.7170	0.9025
Cal Petersen	0.9046	257	36	0.8677	0.6944	0.8910

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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