Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 1, 2023 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Linus Ullmark	0.9183	1136	962	0.9384	0.9439
Akira Schmid	0.8960	232	189	0.9267	0.9418

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Mads Sogaard	0.9130	153	30	0.9216	0.9667	0.9094
Kevin Mandolese	0.9375	80	24	0.9375	0.9583	0.9194
Pyotr Kochetkov	0.9122	497	81	0.9135	0.9136	0.9055
Filip Gustavsson	0.9172	802	125	0.9302	0.9120	0.9221
Laurent Brossoit	0.9065	110	22	0.9364	0.9091	0.9300
Ilya Sorokin	0.9240	1399	214	0.9249	0.9065	0.9207
Cam Talbot	0.9141	821	142	0.9050	0.9014	0.8979
James Reimer	0.9116	940	111	0.8947	0.9009	0.8918
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9191	1416	231	0.9188	0.9004	0.9170
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.8994	806	118	0.8921	0.8305	0.8980
Carter Hart	0.9057	1330	164	0.9075	0.8293	0.9104
Jack Campbell	0.9102	860	156	0.8837	0.8269	0.8941
Martin Jones	0.9059	1008	154	0.8899	0.8247	0.9006
Spencer Knight	0.9057	627	111	0.9011	0.8198	0.9108
Akira Schmid	0.8960	232	32	0.9267	0.8125	0.9300
Philipp Grubauer	0.9124	616	101	0.8929	0.8119	0.9073
Alex Nedeljkovic	0.9061	292	36	0.8801	0.8056	0.8943
Arvid Soderblom	0.8887	453	50	0.8940	0.8000	0.9046
Brian Elliott	0.9100	464	59	0.8966	0.7966	0.9068
Collin Delia	0.8962	395	63	0.8759	0.7778	0.8894
Eric Comrie	0.8970	442	54	0.8824	0.7778	0.8923
Spencer Martin	0.8855	830	115	0.8711	0.7739	0.8877
Erik Kallgren	0.8922	246	25	0.8984	0.7600	0.9102
Thatcher Demko	0.9094	517	66	0.8839	0.7576	0.9027
Cal Petersen	0.9046	257	36	0.8677	0.6944	0.8910

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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