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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 1, 2023   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Linus Ullmark 0.9183 1136 962 0.9384 0.9439
Akira Schmid 0.8960 232 189 0.9267 0.9418

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Mads Sogaard 0.9130 153 30 0.9216 0.9667 0.9094
Kevin Mandolese 0.9375 80 24 0.9375 0.9583 0.9194
Pyotr Kochetkov 0.9122 497 81 0.9135 0.9136 0.9055
Filip Gustavsson 0.9172 802 125 0.9302 0.9120 0.9221
Laurent Brossoit 0.9065 110 22 0.9364 0.9091 0.9300
Ilya Sorokin 0.9240 1399 214 0.9249 0.9065 0.9207
Cam Talbot 0.9141 821 142 0.9050 0.9014 0.8979
James Reimer 0.9116 940 111 0.8947 0.9009 0.8918
Andrei Vasilevskiy 0.9191 1416 231 0.9188 0.9004 0.9170
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 0.8994 806 118 0.8921 0.8305 0.8980
Carter Hart 0.9057 1330 164 0.9075 0.8293 0.9104
Jack Campbell 0.9102 860 156 0.8837 0.8269 0.8941
Martin Jones 0.9059 1008 154 0.8899 0.8247 0.9006
Spencer Knight 0.9057 627 111 0.9011 0.8198 0.9108
Akira Schmid 0.8960 232 32 0.9267 0.8125 0.9300
Philipp Grubauer 0.9124 616 101 0.8929 0.8119 0.9073
Alex Nedeljkovic 0.9061 292 36 0.8801 0.8056 0.8943
Arvid Soderblom 0.8887 453 50 0.8940 0.8000 0.9046
Brian Elliott 0.9100 464 59 0.8966 0.7966 0.9068
Collin Delia 0.8962 395 63 0.8759 0.7778 0.8894
Eric Comrie 0.8970 442 54 0.8824 0.7778 0.8923
Spencer Martin 0.8855 830 115 0.8711 0.7739 0.8877
Erik Kallgren 0.8922 246 25 0.8984 0.7600 0.9102
Thatcher Demko 0.9094 517 66 0.8839 0.7576 0.9027
Cal Petersen 0.9046 257 36 0.8677 0.6944 0.8910

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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