Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

April 5, 2023 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Joel Hofer	0.9063	142	117	0.9155	0.9487
Linus Ullmark	0.9190	1406	1165	0.9374	0.9433

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Joseph Woll	0.9222	147	24	0.9320	0.9583	0.9228
Kevin Mandolese	0.9160	119	31	0.9160	0.9355	0.9099
Pyotr Kochetkov	0.9084	627	98	0.9091	0.9184	0.8999
Mads Sogaard	0.8909	441	72	0.8912	0.9167	0.8882
Filip Gustavsson	0.9200	1060	151	0.9321	0.9139	0.9232
James Reimer	0.9112	1219	163	0.8950	0.9018	0.8916
Linus Ullmark	0.9190	1406	192	0.9374	0.9010	0.9312
Jack Campbell	0.9099	999	170	0.8859	0.8294	0.8946
Sam Montembeault	0.8973	1217	199	0.9055	0.8291	0.9117
Jordan Binnington	0.9061	1739	228	0.8925	0.8289	0.8985
Eric Comrie	0.8967	594	79	0.8855	0.8228	0.8921
Alex Nedeljkovic	0.9070	439	62	0.8952	0.8226	0.9055
Daniil Tarasov	0.8998	528	50	0.8920	0.8200	0.8970
Spencer Knight	0.9057	627	111	0.9011	0.8198	0.9108
Martin Jones	0.9054	1109	168	0.8864	0.8155	0.8979
Collin Delia	0.8976	444	75	0.8829	0.8133	0.8937
Jonathan Quick	0.9110	1028	149	0.8804	0.8121	0.8929
Thatcher Demko	0.9092	894	120	0.8937	0.8083	0.9047
Arvid Soderblom	0.8887	453	50	0.8940	0.8000	0.9046
Spencer Martin	0.8855	830	115	0.8711	0.7739	0.8877
Joel Hofer	0.9063	142	22	0.9155	0.7727	0.9355
Brian Elliott	0.9096	576	71	0.8906	0.7606	0.9042
Erik Kallgren	0.8922	246	25	0.8984	0.7600	0.9102
Cal Petersen	0.9046	257	36	0.8677	0.6944	0.8910

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2022-2023 save percentage

EVSV%: 2022-2023 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2022-2023 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2022-2023 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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