Buy-Low and Sell-High: Skaters
Introduction
Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at skaters performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on shooting percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it is unlikely that a player can maintain a shooting percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers for long amounts of time (which translates to lots of shots).
The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent. The last column (Dev) measures the deviation from career levels. As a fantasy hockey manager (at least one in a league that emphasizes goal scoring), you could interpret this data as a player's trade value. Today's article will include the requirements that a player has taken at least 50 shots on goal and has a deviation of at least 50% from his career numbers.
| Player | G | A | S | S/GP | 3YS/GP | SH% | CSH% | DEV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olli Maatta | 6 | 17 | 59 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 10.2 | 4.6 | 123 |
| Jamie Oleksiak | 9 | 13 | 69 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 13.0 | 6.1 | 114 |
| Julien Gauthier | 8 | 5 | 52 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 15.4 | 7.7 | 100 |
| Brady Skjei | 18 | 18 | 175 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 90 |
| Adam Erne | 8 | 10 | 51 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 15.7 | 9.3 | 69 |
| Nicholas Paul | 17 | 15 | 111 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 15.3 | 9.1 | 68 |
| Nic Dowd | 13 | 12 | 60 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 21.7 | 12.9 | 68 |
| Connor Murphy | 6 | 5 | 78 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 66 |
| Jared McCann | 37 | 25 | 188 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 19.7 | 12.1 | 62 |
| Erik Karlsson | 22 | 73 | 200 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 61 |
| Brett Ritchie | 8 | 5 | 64 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 56 |
| Sean Kuraly | 10 | 7 | 90 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 56 |
| William Carrier | 16 | 9 | 118 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 13.6 | 8.8 | 54 |
| Alex Tuch | 35 | 37 | 198 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 17.7 | 11.5 | 53 |
| Nikita Zadorov | 10 | 6 | 118 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 53 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 35 | 62 | 189 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 18.5 | 12.2 | 52 |
| Carson Soucy | 3 | 12 | 84 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3.6 | 7.2 | -50 |
| Jonas Brodin | 2 | 11 | 84 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 4.9 | -51 |
| Jake Evans | 2 | 13 | 51 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 8.2 | -52 |
| Nick Holden | 2 | 14 | 62 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 6.8 | -52 |
| Nick Leddy | 2 | 20 | 75 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 5.5 | -52 |
| Zach Bogosian | 1 | 4 | 51 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 4.1 | -52 |
| Casey Cizikas | 5 | 15 | 106 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 4.7 | 10.5 | -55 |
| Cole Sillinger | 3 | 8 | 93 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 7.9 | -59 |
| Tanner Jeannot | 6 | 12 | 104 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 5.8 | 13.9 | -59 |
| Alec Martinez | 2 | 11 | 69 | 1.0 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 7.2 | -60 |
| Mathieu Joseph | 3 | 15 | 60 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 5.0 | 13.1 | -62 |
| Jonathan Drouin | 2 | 26 | 69 | 1.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 8.6 | -66 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 2 | 20 | 90 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 6.8 | -67 |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 1 | 17 | 63 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 4.8 | -67 |
| Colin Blackwell | 2 | 8 | 53 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 11.7 | -68 |
| Dante Fabbro | 1 | 9 | 91 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 3.6 | -69 |
| Chris Tanev | 1 | 12 | 65 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 5.2 | -70 |
| Cody Ceci | 1 | 13 | 84 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 4.1 | -71 |
| Jack Johnson | 1 | 6 | 81 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 4.7 | -74 |
| Parker Kelly | 1 | 3 | 59 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 8.3 | -80 |
| Tyler Myers | 1 | 15 | 96 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 5.8 | -82 |
| Erik Johnson | 0 | 7 | 85 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 0.0 | 4.7 | -100 |
| Niko Mikkola | 0 | 5 | 57 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.0 | 2.7 | -100 |
| Brendan Smith | 0 | 5 | 54 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 4.6 | -100 |
Legend
G: Goals
A: Assists
S: Shots on goal
S/GP: Shots on goal per game
3YS/GP: Three-year average shots on goal per game
SH%: 2022-2023 shooting percentage
CSH%: Career shooting percentage
DEV: Deviation from career shooting percentage
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