Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

December 27, 2023 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Alex Lyon	0.9071	191	148	0.9319	0.9595

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Jonathan Quick	0.9112	327	46	0.9205	0.9348	0.9092
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9063	689	103	0.9086	0.9320	0.8979
Jake Oettinger	0.9139	598	125	0.9013	0.9280	0.8895
Cam Talbot	0.9141	603	110	0.9254	0.9273	0.9158
Adin Hill	0.9129	406	67	0.9335	0.9254	0.9252
Jacob Markstrom	0.9092	542	93	0.9041	0.9247	0.8981
Pheonix Copley	0.8988	177	48	0.8701	0.9167	0.8709
Joseph Woll	0.9195	490	72	0.9163	0.9167	0.9096
Jeremy Swayman	0.9212	484	90	0.9277	0.9111	0.9194
Linus Ullmark	0.9186	549	87	0.9126	0.9080	0.9101
Alex Nedeljkovic	0.9079	315	53	0.9175	0.9057	0.9091
Pyotr Kochetkov	0.9031	416	52	0.8942	0.9038	0.8957
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.8961	454	81	0.8921	0.9012	0.8887
Connor Ingram	0.9088	593	109	0.9157	0.8991	0.9152
Anton Forsberg	0.9056	301	47	0.8771	0.8298	0.8845
Laurent Brossoit	0.9078	225	29	0.9111	0.8276	0.9144
Kaapo Kahkonen	0.8988	457	62	0.8993	0.8226	0.9075
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9183	379	55	0.9077	0.8182	0.9154
Stuart Skinner	0.9063	579	103	0.8860	0.8155	0.8989
Sam Montembeault	0.8972	463	80	0.9071	0.8125	0.9235
Ilya Sorokin	0.9220	765	108	0.9137	0.7963	0.9218
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9124	381	78	0.8924	0.7949	0.9161
Ilya Samsonov	0.9045	356	52	0.8708	0.7885	0.8817
Alex Lyon	0.9071	191	33	0.9319	0.7879	0.9441
Anthony Stolarz	0.9116	212	23	0.9151	0.7826	0.9235
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9028	586	96	0.8908	0.7813	0.9074
Arvid Soderblom	0.8803	438	55	0.8699	0.7636	0.8833
Kevin Lankinen	0.9039	269	37	0.8996	0.7568	0.9129
Joel Hofer	0.9019	291	28	0.9038	0.7143	0.9141
Antti Raanta	0.9151	309	38	0.8544	0.7105	0.8786

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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