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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 10, 2024   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Martin Jones 0.9060 319 262 0.9342 0.9542
Anthony Stolarz 0.9125 261 220 0.9234 0.9409

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9061 738 109 0.9065 0.9358 0.8954
Jonathan Quick 0.9112 390 57 0.9154 0.9298 0.9048
Jake Oettinger 0.9139 598 125 0.9013 0.9280 0.8895
Cam Talbot 0.9140 752 123 0.9215 0.9268 0.9120
Adin Hill 0.9129 406 67 0.9335 0.9254 0.9252
Jacob Markstrom 0.9093 698 120 0.9083 0.9250 0.9023
Joseph Woll 0.9195 490 72 0.9163 0.9167 0.9096
Pheonix Copley 0.8988 177 48 0.8701 0.9167 0.8709
Calvin Pickard 0.9034 167 22 0.9042 0.9091 0.8977
Jeremy Swayman 0.9199 612 121 0.9199 0.9091 0.9123
Sergei Bobrovsky 0.9147 813 135 0.9114 0.9037 0.9085
Daniil Tarasov 0.8953 230 34 0.8826 0.8235 0.8901
Vitek Vanecek 0.9051 630 95 0.8841 0.8211 0.8948
Spencer Martin 0.8858 379 55 0.8865 0.8182 0.8974
Anthony Stolarz 0.9125 261 33 0.9234 0.8182 0.9293
Laurent Brossoit 0.9086 289 33 0.9204 0.8182 0.9226
Casey DeSmith 0.9122 357 49 0.9132 0.8163 0.9219
Kaapo Kahkonen 0.8983 600 81 0.8967 0.8148 0.9045
Ilya Sorokin 0.9206 971 138 0.9083 0.8116 0.9145
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9123 530 100 0.8925 0.8000 0.9144
Arvid Soderblom 0.8823 514 73 0.8755 0.7945 0.8865
Joel Hofer 0.9047 390 48 0.9077 0.7917 0.9141
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9022 727 114 0.8872 0.7895 0.9009
Ilya Samsonov 0.9034 377 54 0.8621 0.7778 0.8748
Kevin Lankinen 0.9040 312 44 0.9006 0.7727 0.9125
Antti Raanta 0.9150 352 40 0.8608 0.7000 0.8839

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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