Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 10, 2024 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Martin Jones	0.9060	319	262	0.9342	0.9542
Anthony Stolarz	0.9125	261	220	0.9234	0.9409

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9061	738	109	0.9065	0.9358	0.8954
Jonathan Quick	0.9112	390	57	0.9154	0.9298	0.9048
Jake Oettinger	0.9139	598	125	0.9013	0.9280	0.8895
Cam Talbot	0.9140	752	123	0.9215	0.9268	0.9120
Adin Hill	0.9129	406	67	0.9335	0.9254	0.9252
Jacob Markstrom	0.9093	698	120	0.9083	0.9250	0.9023
Joseph Woll	0.9195	490	72	0.9163	0.9167	0.9096
Pheonix Copley	0.8988	177	48	0.8701	0.9167	0.8709
Calvin Pickard	0.9034	167	22	0.9042	0.9091	0.8977
Jeremy Swayman	0.9199	612	121	0.9199	0.9091	0.9123
Sergei Bobrovsky	0.9147	813	135	0.9114	0.9037	0.9085
Daniil Tarasov	0.8953	230	34	0.8826	0.8235	0.8901
Vitek Vanecek	0.9051	630	95	0.8841	0.8211	0.8948
Spencer Martin	0.8858	379	55	0.8865	0.8182	0.8974
Anthony Stolarz	0.9125	261	33	0.9234	0.8182	0.9293
Laurent Brossoit	0.9086	289	33	0.9204	0.8182	0.9226
Casey DeSmith	0.9122	357	49	0.9132	0.8163	0.9219
Kaapo Kahkonen	0.8983	600	81	0.8967	0.8148	0.9045
Ilya Sorokin	0.9206	971	138	0.9083	0.8116	0.9145
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9123	530	100	0.8925	0.8000	0.9144
Arvid Soderblom	0.8823	514	73	0.8755	0.7945	0.8865
Joel Hofer	0.9047	390	48	0.9077	0.7917	0.9141
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9022	727	114	0.8872	0.7895	0.9009
Ilya Samsonov	0.9034	377	54	0.8621	0.7778	0.8748
Kevin Lankinen	0.9040	312	44	0.9006	0.7727	0.9125
Antti Raanta	0.9150	352	40	0.8608	0.7000	0.8839

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2023-2024 save percentage

EVSV%: 2023-2024 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2023-2024 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2023-2024 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

Comments (0)

In order to leave a comment, you must be a registered user at our website and logged in.

Older posts Newer posts