Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 6, 2024 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Cam Talbot	0.9136	181	153	0.9227	0.9608
Dustin Wolf	0.8994	195	152	0.9077	0.9474

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Samuel Ersson	0.8933	203	34	0.9015	0.9706	0.8883
Charlie Lindgren	0.9080	154	24	0.8961	0.9583	0.8856
Juuse Saros	0.9167	287	46	0.9024	0.9565	0.8870
Igor Shesterkin	0.9214	299	42	0.9331	0.9524	0.9192
Jake Oettinger	0.9130	204	32	0.9167	0.9375	0.9091
Joey Daccord	0.9077	259	57	0.9151	0.9298	0.9050
Anton Forsberg	0.9051	155	25	0.9097	0.9200	0.9067
Jordan Binnington	0.9076	271	36	0.9041	0.9167	0.9004
Sergei Bobrovsky	0.9146	249	42	0.8916	0.9048	0.8899
Linus Ullmark	0.9178	166	34	0.8916	0.8235	0.9028
Dan Vladar	0.8942	205	28	0.9073	0.8214	0.9133
Pyotr Kochetkov	0.9072	156	21	0.8782	0.8095	0.8857
Adin Hill	0.9080	175	21	0.8743	0.8095	0.8825
Ilya Sorokin	0.9189	241	26	0.9212	0.8077	0.9263
Philipp Grubauer	0.9099	154	31	0.8766	0.8065	0.8907
Dustin Wolf	0.8994	195	36	0.9077	0.8056	0.9344
Andrei Vasilevskiy	0.9164	279	41	0.9032	0.8049	0.9137
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9038	271	34	0.9041	0.7941	0.9169
Darcy Kuemper	0.9137	189	24	0.8995	0.7917	0.9099
Petr Mrazek	0.9070	300	43	0.9000	0.7907	0.9115
Jeremy Swayman	0.9168	282	57	0.8936	0.7895	0.9109
Karel Vejmelka	0.8979	99	22	0.8990	0.7727	0.9225
Logan Thompson	0.9112	141	21	0.8936	0.7619	0.9082
Justus Annunen	0.9092	170	25	0.8941	0.7600	0.9085
Stuart Skinner	0.9077	210	27	0.8810	0.7407	0.8939
Cam Talbot	0.9136	181	25	0.9227	0.7200	0.9451

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2024-2025 save percentage

EVSV%: 2024-2025 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2024-2025 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2024-2025 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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