Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

November 27, 2024 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Jonathan Quick	0.9113	175	152	0.9429	0.9539
Cam Talbot	0.9136	365	313	0.9205	0.9457
Karel Vejmelka	0.8994	295	213	0.9220	0.9437
John Gibson	0.9100	117	106	0.9060	0.9434
Dustin Wolf	0.9070	380	310	0.9211	0.9419

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Samuel Ersson	0.8937	265	43	0.9019	0.9767	0.8869
Juuse Saros	0.9170	531	92	0.9153	0.9565	0.8996
Charlie Lindgren	0.9080	263	47	0.9011	0.9362	0.8920
Arvid Soderblom	0.8875	190	30	0.9263	0.9333	0.9158
Igor Shesterkin	0.9204	486	71	0.9136	0.9296	0.9037
Joey Daccord	0.9095	434	71	0.9217	0.9155	0.9150
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9042	429	60	0.9068	0.9000	0.9045
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9035	349	53	0.8940	0.8302	0.9013
Petr Mrazek	0.9074	452	63	0.9115	0.8254	0.9165
Logan Thompson	0.9125	325	40	0.9169	0.8250	0.9186
Alex Nedeljkovic	0.9036	310	44	0.8774	0.8182	0.8836
Joel Hofer	0.9084	207	26	0.8986	0.8077	0.9084
Philipp Grubauer	0.9099	177	31	0.8814	0.8065	0.8927
Adin Hill	0.9076	355	35	0.8873	0.8000	0.8946
Stuart Skinner	0.9065	397	45	0.8816	0.8000	0.8867
Jeremy Swayman	0.9153	438	79	0.8881	0.7975	0.9047
David Rittich	0.9053	264	39	0.8826	0.7949	0.8926
Dan Vladar	0.8942	279	36	0.9032	0.7778	0.9138
Cam Talbot	0.9136	365	44	0.9205	0.7500	0.9331
Semyon Varlamov	0.9157	236	24	0.8983	0.7500	0.9060
Justus Annunen	0.9015	218	30	0.8716	0.7333	0.8892
Ivan Fedotov	0.8622	230	26	0.8739	0.7308	0.8886

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2024-2025 save percentage

EVSV%: 2024-2025 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2024-2025 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2024-2025 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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