Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

December 18, 2024 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Cam Talbot	0.9136	467	397	0.9165	0.9496
Anthony Stolarz	0.9163	480	379	0.9271	0.9393

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Arvid Soderblom	0.8874	339	49	0.9086	0.9592	0.8980
Samuel Ersson	0.8919	329	51	0.8906	0.9412	0.8833
Juuse Saros	0.9166	752	112	0.9109	0.9286	0.9019
Igor Shesterkin	0.9196	717	105	0.9079	0.9143	0.9005
Tristan Jarry	0.9103	383	58	0.8851	0.9138	0.8786
Darcy Kuemper	0.9139	364	57	0.9121	0.9123	0.9083
Joey Daccord	0.9087	598	90	0.9147	0.9111	0.9087
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9048	646	89	0.9118	0.9101	0.9079
Pyotr Kochetkov	0.9082	470	60	0.9021	0.9000	0.8970
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9120	232	23	0.9095	0.8261	0.9135
Joel Hofer	0.9091	283	34	0.9046	0.8235	0.9102
John Gibson	0.9099	319	50	0.9060	0.8200	0.9157
Anton Forsberg	0.9040	271	44	0.8893	0.8182	0.9002
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9025	618	87	0.8964	0.8161	0.9049
Stuart Skinner	0.9069	564	64	0.8918	0.8125	0.8989
Scott Wedgewood	0.9058	261	30	0.9042	0.8000	0.9087
Jeremy Swayman	0.9139	628	99	0.8869	0.7980	0.8992
Eric Comrie	0.8942	213	24	0.9014	0.7917	0.9070
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9026	547	90	0.8867	0.7889	0.9027
David Rittich	0.9054	356	46	0.8904	0.7826	0.9027
Jonas Johansson	0.8877	178	22	0.8820	0.7727	0.8961
Justus Annunen	0.9058	283	39	0.8905	0.7692	0.9054
Ilya Sorokin	0.9173	654	71	0.9037	0.7606	0.9132
Semyon Varlamov	0.9156	262	30	0.8893	0.7333	0.9016
Ivan Fedotov	0.8658	260	26	0.8769	0.7308	0.8897
Dan Vladar	0.8915	435	62	0.8851	0.7258	0.9049
Cam Talbot	0.9136	467	59	0.9165	0.7119	0.9362
Calvin Pickard	0.9039	252	27	0.9008	0.7037	0.9139

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2024-2025 save percentage

EVSV%: 2024-2025 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2024-2025 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2024-2025 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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