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Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

January 1, 2025   Left Wing Lock Staff   0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player CSV% SA EVSA SV% EVSV%
Connor Hellebuyck 0.9175 854 702 0.9297 0.9402
Anthony Stolarz 0.9163 480 379 0.9271 0.9393

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player CSV% SA PKSA SV% PKSV% ASV%
Arvid Soderblom 0.8882 451 73 0.9069 0.9589 0.8951
Tristan Jarry 0.9098 495 75 0.8828 0.9200 0.8774
Samuel Ersson 0.8904 439 72 0.8838 0.9167 0.8775
Igor Shesterkin 0.9192 829 143 0.9059 0.9161 0.9001
Mackenzie Blackwood 0.9054 756 102 0.9153 0.9118 0.9107
Juuse Saros 0.9160 843 124 0.9027 0.9113 0.8965
Darcy Kuemper 0.9137 443 67 0.9074 0.9104 0.9037
Joey Daccord 0.9081 649 99 0.9122 0.9091 0.9062
Pyotr Kochetkov 0.9072 566 75 0.8993 0.9067 0.8935
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 0.9026 745 100 0.8980 0.8300 0.9035
Ilya Samsonov 0.9038 384 41 0.9063 0.8293 0.9103
John Gibson 0.9099 352 58 0.9063 0.8276 0.9178
Spencer Martin 0.8828 175 29 0.8457 0.8276 0.8616
Jordan Binnington 0.9067 754 98 0.8966 0.8265 0.9017
Jake Allen 0.9072 329 46 0.8967 0.8261 0.9063
Aleksei Kolosov 0.8723 321 51 0.8723 0.8235 0.8789
Philipp Grubauer 0.9090 425 56 0.8776 0.8214 0.8838
Alexandar Georgiev 0.9056 574 78 0.8728 0.8205 0.8854
Anton Forsberg 0.9040 271 44 0.8893 0.8182 0.9002
Eric Comrie 0.8947 280 27 0.9036 0.8148 0.9056
Elvis Merzlikins 0.9028 680 107 0.8912 0.8131 0.9022
Jeremy Swayman 0.9141 709 111 0.8914 0.8018 0.9026
Joonas Korpisalo 0.9009 325 43 0.8954 0.7907 0.9065
Marc-Andre Fleury 0.9119 283 28 0.8975 0.7857 0.9059
Joel Hofer 0.9090 347 42 0.9049 0.7857 0.9142
Ilya Sorokin 0.9165 756 85 0.8981 0.7765 0.9071
David Rittich 0.9051 397 49 0.8866 0.7755 0.8992
Calvin Pickard 0.9037 305 35 0.8984 0.7714 0.9064
Dan Vladar 0.8923 500 75 0.8900 0.7600 0.9075
Justus Annunen 0.9047 358 54 0.8911 0.7593 0.9088
Semyon Varlamov 0.9156 262 30 0.8893 0.7333 0.9016
Ivan Fedotov 0.8658 260 26 0.8769 0.7308 0.8897
Cam Talbot 0.9132 541 67 0.9057 0.7164 0.9262

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2024-2025 save percentage

EVSV%: 2024-2025 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2024-2025 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2024-2025 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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