Buy-Low and Sell-High: Goalies

March 12, 2025 Left Wing Lock Staff 0 Comments

Introduction

Welcome to Unsustainable - our weekly look at goalies performing at unsustainable levels. Below, you'll find a data table with an emphasis on save percentages. What we know, from years and years of data, is that it unlikely that a player can maintain a save percentage that deviates significantly from his career numbers.

The aim of this weekly article is to highlight players, that the data suggests, are playing at levels inconsistent with their actual talent.

Even-strength Save Percentage

We'll first look at the EVSV% of several goalies. To put this into context, it is rare for a starting goalie to maintain an EVSV% at or above the .940 level over the course of a season. How rare? At a rate of just under 1 goalie per season since the full-season lockout of 2004-2005. So what are the chances that the starting goalie on your fantasy hockey team is going to maintain that high, early-season EVSV%? Slim to none. Below, you'll find a list of starting goalies most likely to see a regression in their EVSV% in the future.

Player	CSV%	SA	EVSA	SV%	EVSV%
Marcus Hogberg	0.8999	178	153	0.9382	0.9477

Penalty Kill Save Percentage

Next, we want to examine the PKSV% of starting goalies. We know that PKSV% is largely driven by luck, so fantasy hockey managers should be aware of starting goalies with a SV% propped up by an unusually high PKSV% (for reference, the league average in recent seasons is .865). The ASV% column tells you what a goalie's SV% would look like if he were performing at the league average in PKSV%. Note that the list includes goalies with unusually high PKSV% values and goalies with unusually low PKSV% values.

Player	CSV%	SA	PKSA	SV%	PKSV%	ASV%
Leevi Meriläinen	0.9186	295	45	0.9254	0.9111	0.9171
Mackenzie Blackwood	0.9060	1309	188	0.9144	0.9096	0.9094
Frederik Andersen	0.9157	315	53	0.9111	0.9057	0.9059
Arvid Soderblom	0.8915	962	126	0.9054	0.9048	0.9015
Darcy Kuemper	0.9139	951	151	0.9138	0.9007	0.9110
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	0.9001	1285	183	0.8918	0.8306	0.8982
Eric Comrie	0.8976	452	53	0.9137	0.8302	0.9150
Joseph Woll	0.9088	958	135	0.9050	0.8296	0.9092
Joonas Korpisalo	0.9007	530	76	0.8943	0.8289	0.9067
Elvis Merzlikins	0.9026	1256	184	0.8957	0.8261	0.9035
Aleksei Kolosov	0.8703	347	51	0.8703	0.8235	0.8767
Scott Wedgewood	0.9061	424	55	0.9080	0.8182	0.9118
Yaroslav Askarov	0.8993	357	44	0.8964	0.8182	0.8998
Jeremy Swayman	0.9132	1332	183	0.8986	0.8142	0.9055
Thatcher Demko	0.9107	412	48	0.8908	0.8125	0.8959
David Rittich	0.9042	618	74	0.8851	0.8108	0.8938
John Gibson	0.9099	726	100	0.9091	0.8100	0.9178
Anton Forsberg	0.9039	567	83	0.8959	0.8072	0.9050
Alexandar Georgiev	0.9040	1027	160	0.8744	0.8063	0.8894
Jordan Binnington	0.9065	1185	143	0.8987	0.8042	0.9050
Justus Annunen	0.9001	608	89	0.8882	0.7865	0.8998
Dan Vladar	0.8930	704	103	0.8935	0.7864	0.9062
Marc-Andre Fleury	0.9119	594	69	0.9040	0.7826	0.9126
Ilya Samsonov	0.9018	660	66	0.8894	0.7727	0.8987
Joel Hofer	0.9062	626	70	0.8994	0.7714	0.9113
Ivan Fedotov	0.8770	516	39	0.8837	0.7692	0.8887
Cam Talbot	0.9125	1016	130	0.8996	0.7692	0.9154
Calvin Pickard	0.9030	565	55	0.8956	0.7455	0.9053
Semyon Varlamov	0.9156	262	30	0.8893	0.7333	0.9016

Legend

CSV%: Career Save Percentage

SA: Shots against

EVSA: Even-strength shots against

PKSA: Shots against while on the penalty kill

SV%: 2024-2025 save percentage

EVSV%: 2024-2025 even-strength save percentage

PKSV%: 2024-2025 save percentage while on the penalty kill

ASV%: 2024-2025 save percentage if performing at league average on the penalty kill

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